Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Doubts & Trade Deals Shape Trend

Market Overview

Gold and silver came under renewed selling pressure in the Asian session as risk appetite improved following positive trade developments.

Market sentiment turned bullish following confirmation of a finalized trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan. At the same time, reports of a potential 15% tariff reduction deal between the U.S. and the EU added to the optimism.

This shift in sentiment reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets, pressuring both precious metals.

Federal Reserve Path in Focus as Dollar Weakens

While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at the July FOMC meeting, investors continue to anticipate policy easing later this year. Futures markets are increasingly pricing in at least one rate cut by the end of Q4.

The broader outlook remains clouded by conflicting signals within the Fed, where internal disagreement over the pace and depth of potential easing has added uncertainty. Political voices, including Fed appointees, have leaned toward a more dovish stance, further pressuring the central bank’s forward guidance.

The U.S. dollar, responding to this evolving narrative, slipped to a two-week low—creating a mildly supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

Silver Outlook Balances Industrial Demand and Macro Risks

Silver’s decline has tracked the broader weakness in precious metals, but it retains structural support from its industrial demand profile. Used extensively in electronics, photovoltaics, and clean energy applications, silver’s price is tightly linked to the global growth cycle.

Any strong macroeconomic data could provide an upside catalyst for industrial metals, although rising bond yields and a stronger dollar may continue to weigh on the sector in the short term.

All Eyes on Economic Data and ECB Policy Update

Investors now await flash PMI data, U.S. jobless claims, and new home sales figures, all of which could influence Fed expectations and dollar strength.

The European Central Bank’s upcoming policy decision also adds a layer of uncertainty that could shape near-term volatility across gold and silver markets.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold prices are pulling back after failing to hold above the $3,433 resistance level. The metal is now testing the 100-period EMA near $3,372, which may act as immediate support. A break below this zone could accelerate a move toward $3,335, while further downside risks expose $3,310.

On the upside, bulls must reclaim the $3,402–$3,433 zone to revive bullish momentum toward the $3,458 ceiling. The broader structure still shows an ascending channel, but short-term momentum has weakened as price slips below the 50-period EMA.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is holding above $39 in a well-defined ascending channel, supported by the 50-period EMA near $38.47. After briefly testing resistance around $39.47, the metal is consolidating just below that level, suggesting a potential breakout attempt.

A decisive move above $39.78 would open the path toward $40.10 and possibly $40.99. On the downside, immediate support lies near $38.72, and a drop below this may trigger a deeper pullback toward $38.44.