Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Easing and Tariff Risks Drive Market Outlook

Market Overview

Gold rallied for a sixth straight session in Asian trading on Tuesday, briefly setting a fresh record high above $3,500. The momentum reflects mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut this month, alongside a steady flow of safe-haven demand tied to tariff disputes and broader geopolitical risks.

Despite the bullish tone, analysts noted that stretched technical conditions and a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar kept Gold from consolidating above the milestone level.

Silver Tracks Gold but Faces Dollar Headwinds

Silver followed Gold’s trajectory, holding modest gains and trading near $40.77. The white metal remains supported by dovish Fed expectations and ongoing safe-haven inflows. However, a firmer U.S. Dollar and investor caution ahead of major U.S. data have limited momentum.

“The underlying macro backdrop is supportive, but the Dollar’s resilience is capping near-term upside for Silver,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Policy Outlook, Tariffs, and Geopolitical Tensions Drive Demand

The rally in precious metals is anchored in expectations of monetary easing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures markets now price an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, compared with 85% prior to last week’s inflation data. Lower borrowing costs reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Gold and Silver, sustaining investor appetite.

Trade policy uncertainty has further bolstered demand. A U.S. federal appeals court recently declared reciprocal tariffs unlawful, adding fresh uncertainty as markets await a possible Supreme Court review. Investors turned to metals as a hedge against trade disruption.

Meanwhile, continued global tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East reinforced safe-haven flows, with institutional buyers and retail investors alike adding exposure to metals as risk assets wavered.

Investors Await U.S. Economic Data for Next Signal

Market participants are now focused on upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report.

These releases will provide clarity on labor market strength and inflation trends, shaping expectations for the Fed’s next move.

For now, Gold and Silver remain buoyed by the dual forces of policy speculation and geopolitical caution, though analysts warn that profit-taking may temper short-term gains.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds near $3,477, eyeing $3,513–$3,571 if momentum persists. Silver trades at $40.41, with support at $39.97–$39.50; holding above could target $41.22–$41.68 in the short term.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,477, extending its breakout above the long-standing consolidation zone. The move cleared resistance around $3,434, supported by strong buying momentum.

The 50-day EMA at $3,358 is now acting as a key dynamic support, while the 200-day EMA sits far below at $3,112, reinforcing the broader uptrend. The MACD shows widening bullish momentum, while the RSI at 69 signals strength but approaches overbought conditions.

Price action suggests buyers remain in control, with potential targets at $3,513 and $3,571 if momentum holds. A drop back below $3,434 would weaken this outlook and could bring a retest of $3,377 support.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading around $40.41, cooling slightly after a strong rally that cleared resistance near $40.83. The breakout followed a symmetrical triangle pattern, with price extending nearly 6.5% higher before stalling. Current consolidation suggests a possible retest of the $39.97–$39.50 zone, now serving as support.

The 50-EMA at $39.20 adds further reinforcement. Momentum remains positive: MACD lines stay in bullish alignment, though the histogram is flattening, while the RSI at 70 shows overbought conditions, hinting at near-term pullback risk.

If bulls defend $39.97, price could push again toward $41.22–$41.68. A break below $39.50, however, may trigger a slide back toward $38.73 support.