Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Policy, Jobs Data, and Industrial Demand

Market Overview

Gold steadied in early European trade after touching record highs last week, as the U.S. dollar regained some ground from its late-July lows. The modest rebound in the greenback and a stronger tone in equity markets curbed safe-haven demand, leaving the precious metal consolidating gains.

The latest U.S. labor market data added fuel to speculation of deeper monetary easing. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report showed just 22,000 jobs created, well below forecasts, while revisions revealed the first monthly decline in employment since 2020.

The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, and wage growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year, underscoring weakening labor conditions.

“The jobs data was a wake-up call,” said a London-based commodities strategist. “Markets now see a higher probability of a jumbo cut in September and at least three cuts by year-end.” Those expectations helped gold climb to fresh records last week, reflecting investor positioning for lower U.S. yields.

Silver Tracks Industrial and Policy Shifts

Silver also entered a consolidation phase after its recent rally, weighed by the firmer U.S. dollar and improving risk sentiment in global equities. While monetary policy remains a key driver, industrial demand has provided a second leg of support for the metal.

Analysts point to robust consumption in electronics and solar panel production, alongside steady offtake from emerging markets, as keeping silver anchored even during corrective phases.

Central banks’ continued diversification into precious metals has further underpinned both gold and silver, with 2025 purchases on track to surpass last year’s record pace, according to the World Gold Council.

Market Awaits Inflation Data

Attention now turns to U.S. inflation data later this week. A cooler reading would reinforce the dovish tilt already priced in, potentially giving gold and silver another lift. However, a firmer outcome could temper expectations for aggressive easing and extend the dollar’s recovery.

The combination of weaker labor data, central bank buying, and industrial demand suggests both metals remain supported, though short-term momentum hinges on the balance between policy expectations and currency movements.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds near $3,611 with resistance at $3,644, while silver trades at $41.05, eyeing $41.84. Both metals consolidate gains as markets await U.S. inflation data.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,611, extending gains after breaking above the $3,600 level. The chart shows price respecting an ascending trendline while moving within measured ranges, each rally adding nearly 1.8% before consolidating.

Current momentum is supported by the 50-EMA at $3,569, while the 200-EMA at $3,496 sits deeper as long-term support. The RSI at 70 signals strong buying pressure but is nearing overbought territory, suggesting a possible pause.

If bulls sustain momentum, resistance is seen at $3,644. On the downside, support lies at $3,577 and $3,544. A close above $3,619 would confirm strength, while rejection here could trigger a short pullback toward the trendline base.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $41.05, holding above the rising trendline that has guided price action since late August. The 50-EMA at $40.85 is acting as short-term support, while the 200-EMA at $40.15 provides a deeper cushion.

Resistance levels are seen at $41.40 and $41.84, with a breakout potentially paving the way toward the $42.39 zone. On the downside, immediate support is at $40.55, followed by $40.15.

The RSI at 57 signals steady momentum without being overbought, suggesting room for further gains. As long as silver holds above $40.55, the bias remains bullish, with higher highs likely if resistance levels give way.