Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Eyes $4,800 Resistance Amid Blockade Shock – Is a Breakout Imminent?

Gold Takes a Hit as Oil Surge Brings Inflation Fears Back into Focus

Gold slipped lower towards $4,730 to $4,750, losing around 0.5-1% as things started to get hairy on the geopolitical front and oil suddenly shot up past $104 again – all of this has made people start thinking about inflation all over again. The collapse of US-Iran talks and a US naval blockade announcement sent crude prices into the stratosphere, raising more and more concerns about whether inflation is going to be a persistent problem. On top of all this, the US dollar is getting a bit stronger, coming in at roughly 0.3% up – and that’s not exactly great news for gold as it makes the whole thing less attractive to investors as an asset that doesn’t pay any interest.

Actually, earlier gains that people were making on the assumption that a ceasefire was going to happen have pretty much faded as people take a step back and look at what this actually means for the way the Federal Reserve handles interest rates. It looks like higher energy prices might actually be enough to slow down the rate of interest cuts, and that’s going to put a bit of a lid on gold’s upside in the short term.

On the other hand, the fundamentals are still pretty solid – central banks are still buying it up and people are still putting money into gold ETFs, so that should support the price. Analysts are expecting a bit of a sideways move, with any declines linked to the dollar getting stronger and the inflation picture getting even murkier – but if there’s another flare-up in the geo-political tensions then we could see a bit of a rush to gold for safety.

Gold Holds Trendline Support Near $4,700 as Momentum Stabilizes

Gold is currently trading in the $4,725 region, still clinging to the upward trendline that has helped the metal recover from those late March lows near $4,200. Price action is paused right above that $4,700 floor, with any small wiggles in the chart indicating traders are struggling to decide on a direction after recent rebound.

The 50 day EMA has flattened out at pretty much current levels while the 200 day EMA still sits overhead around $4,800 which is acting a bit of a ceiling for any would be rallies. RSI is hovering just on 50, suggesting we are looking at a bit of a neutral situation with traders right now not leaning one way or the other.

A break above that $4800 mark could then open the door for a run up to $4860 but failing to hold $4700 might just mean a trip downwards to $4650.

Trade idea: If you can get a trade on above $4800 , your target could be $4860 and you might want to set your stop just below $4700.

Silver Tests Key Support Zone Around $74 as Buyers Defend Structure

Silver is sitting at $74.30 , perched on a crucial horizontal line of support in the $73.80 to $74.00 zone – which just so happens to be lined up with an uptrend line from the low points in the metal. There are repeated signs of buying interest in the charts – the repeated rejection of any attempts to go below the $73.80 mark is a pretty good sign that some buyers are still around. But momentum overall is still pretty soft.

The 50 day EMA is pretty much at $75 and for now is acting as resistance while the 200 day EMA is way above at $77 which is keeping the overall trend pretty cautious. RSI is right around 45-50 which is saying that the current state of affairs is still pretty weak from a bullish perspective. A break above that $75 level might then get things moving upwards towards $77 but failing to hold above $73.80 might be a sign of bigger problems.

Trade idea: Your trading idea is to maybe take a buy at $75 or above , with a target of $77, and a stop placed just below $73.80.