Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Reclaims $4,675 Pre-NFP; Is $5,000 Next?

Gold and Silver Steady After NFP in Thin Holiday Trading

Gold and silver slipped quietly yesterday april 3rd , markets were struggling to get any real momentum going in a pretty quiet good friday environment and investors were sitting tight waiting to see how the US nonfarm payrolls report shapes up a bit later on.

The general expectation is for a bit of a job market rebound – maybe 60,000 to 65,000 new jobs after that sharp contraction in february and the unemployment rate looks like it will probably hold steady around 4.4 percent and wages will probably keep on growing at a pace of around 3.7 to 3.8 percent year over year. Thats all well and good but really, the numbers are coming out and will give us a much better sense of whats really going on in the US labour market and what it means for the Fed’s next move.

The dollar hasnt been doing much ahead of the report being released , so gold prices basically just stuck to the same old range all day. Then again the whole turn out is looking like it will keep rates up, and that might put a lid on the price of gold especially with all the other stuff going on like geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices.

Silver on the other hand is much more sensitive to changes in how well the economy is doing, which is making for some pretty wild price swings and a lot of uncertainty about what to expect next.

Gold Reclaims Trendline as Buyers Defend Pullback

Gold ($4,676) is trying to hold its own after a bit of a rough patch, hovering above an important trendline around $4,610 as it manages to reclaim that 50-day moving average. The recent candles are telling a story though – longish lower wicks suggesting that people are still keen to buy in when prices drop, even if it’s not giving up the ghost just yet to push above that 200 day moving average near $4,964.

For now, gold’s price is stuck between support at $4,578 and resistance at $4,806, and the structure is starting to point towards a possible higher low forming.

The RSI has bounced back up to the 50 zone after dipping right down near 40, which suggests that things might be looking up – but it’s not yet saying that the buyers are in the driving seat. If it can break through $4,806 then that would help confirm that the trend is set to continue. On the other hand, if it gives way below that trendline support then that could put the pressure back on for another decline.

Trade Idea: Consider buying when you get above $4,806 and look to target $4,964 – with a stop loss below the $4,578 support.

Silver Stabilizes at Demand Zone but Momentum Remains Fragile

Silver ($72.99) is managing to hold its ground above a key area of support around $71.50 after bouncing back nicely from some recent lows, thanks in part to the fact that its got an ascending trendline to fall back on. The price is currently hovering around that 50 day moving average but it’s still a good way off the 200 day moving average near $79.31 – so it’s still feeling a bit put upon.

Looking at the chart the signals are a bit all over the place, with a lot of small bodied candles popping up after a spell of wild price action – that’s just telling us that the market is stuck in a bit of limbo. Resistance is sitting at $75.88, but on the other hand support is looking pretty solid at $71.50 and $68.

The RSI is hovering just above 45, which is a pretty neutral number – so we can’t say that the buyers are in the driving seat at all yet. If it can break above $75.88 then that would start to shift the bias upwards for that one, but a loss of $71.50 and that could expose some further downside pressure.

Trade Idea: Consider buying when silver gets above $75.88 and look to target $79.30 – with a stop loss below that $71.50 line.