Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Slips Below $3,300, Silver Eyes $37

Market Overview

Gold prices retreated in early Asian trading on Friday, falling below the $3,300 threshold to trade near a two-week low of $3,294.80. The decline follows improving risk sentiment driven by signs of a ceasefire in the Middle East, prompting a rotation away from safe-haven assets.

Despite the downturn, gold’s losses remain contained amid persistent uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy and dollar weakness.

Fed Autonomy, Dollar Weakness Cushion Precious Metals

The Federal Reserve’s independence is back under scrutiny after renewed political criticism of Chair Jerome Powell. Reports suggest potential leadership changes could be announced as early as September, raising questions about future rate decisions. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to hover near its lowest level since March 2022, further supporting the yellow metal.

Silver followed a similar path, slipping to $36.39 intraday before recovering to $36.57. The metal remains sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment but is also buoyed by a softening greenback and speculation of policy easing. The 50-period EMA at $36.26 remains a key support level for bulls.

Weak U.S. Data Strengthens Rate Cut Outlook

Macroeconomic indicators have added fuel to the case for monetary easing. The Commerce Department’s final estimate for Q1 GDP revealed a sharper-than-expected contraction of 0.5%, down from the previously reported 0.2% decline. Additionally, while initial jobless claims ticked lower, continuing claims climbed to their highest level since November 2021, suggesting persistent labor market weakness.

With markets now pricing in a potential rate cut as early as July, pressure on the dollar is likely to intensify. Eyes are firmly on Friday’s release of the May PCE Price Index, expected to rise 0.1% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.

Until a clearer inflation signal emerges, traders appear content to keep their exposure to gold and silver, betting that weakening fundamentals will eventually drive central bank easing.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold dips below $3,300 as risk sentiment improves, but uncertainty surrounding the Fed and dollar weakness keep XAU/USD supported near key levels.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to slide within a well-defined descending channel, now trading near $3,294 after rejecting the $3,327 resistance zone. The 4-hour chart shows consistent lower highs and lower lows, with price breaking below both the 50-EMA ($3,345) and 200-EMA ($3,326), reinforcing the bearish momentum.

The recent drop from $3,350 suggests sellers are firmly in control, with next support seen at $3,293 and $3,272. A close below $3,293 would confirm further downside, possibly targeting $3,246. Meanwhile, any bounce remains capped below the $3,327–$3,340 supply zone.

The channel remains intact, and gold needs a breakout above $3,350 to shift sentiment in favor of buyers.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading around $36.57, consolidating just below the $36.83 resistance after bouncing off support at $36.04. Price remains above the 50-period EMA ($36.26), signaling short-term bullish control, while the 200-period EMA at $35.08 reinforces broader trend support.

Momentum has paused near the upper resistance band, with recent candles showing indecision. A break above $36.83 would expose $37.31 and $37.69, while failure to clear could trigger a pullback toward $36.04 and $35.63.

The current setup favors cautious optimism, but a decisive breakout or breakdown is needed to confirm the next directional move. Buyers remain in control unless $36.04 gives way.