Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Surges 4% as Ceasefire Reshapes Macro Risks – Bullish Trend Reclaimed?

Gold and Silver Gain as Ceasefire Reshapes Safe-Haven Flows

Gold and silver had a massive jump on 8th April as investors rethought their risk levels after the two week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, a move which brought an end to immediate supply worries in the Strait of Hormuz but also threw up some major uncertainty on the macro front.

Gold jumped about 3-4% throughout the day – and that was just the latest boost in a rally that’s been going on for a while now – thanks to central banks buying up gold and investors looking to hedge their bets by spreading their portfolios a bit more. Even though the dollar was weakening and people are still worried about inflation, the global equities did actually go up.

Silver actually did way better, going up 5-8% – and that shows how it’s being used both as a safe place to put your money and as an input into all sorts of industrial processes. The whole rally got a bit of a boost from people feeling a bit more confident about taking risks and from expectations that demand for things like solar panels and electronics will stay strong.

But even though the ceasefire deal happened and everything seems a bit less tense now, traders are still really focused on the risks of actually getting this deal done – and what the wider impact of it will be on the world economy. As one commodities expert put it – “markets are just pricing in less disruption, not that we’ve actually solved everything”, so the prices of precious metals will still be sensitive to all sorts of changes – whether it’s policy decisions or news about the state of the global economy

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is making a push higher, now knocking on $4,800’s door, breaking out of a tight short-term consolidation in the process and – just as importantly – reclaiming the 50 day SMA as it goes, which is a pretty clear indication things are turning around for this commodity.

With price now testing a super important pocket of resistance between $4,800-$4,850, which also happens to be aligned with the 200 day SMA, the vibes are looking pretty bullish – the ascending trendline from recent lows is still very definitely in place, and that’s a good sign that the higher lows pattern remains intact too.

RSI is currently hovering at around 60, which suggests that Gold is starting to get some real momentum building but is by no means feeling overcooked just yet.

If Gold can now push through that key resistance zone around $4,850, all bets are off and $4,900-$4,980 could be the next stop – but if it falls short and gets rejected here, expect a pullback back toward $4,650 to follow.

Trade idea: Consider buying Gold above $4,850, targeting $4,950.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver has staged a pretty impressive rebound, now back up toward $76-$77 and has actually broken clear of a key horizontal resistance zone and reclaimed the 50 day SMA in the process – so things are definitely starting to feel more positive here. With price now knocking on the door of the 200 day SMA around $77.50-$78, however, this is still a major barrier that needs to be overcome.

The structure is still looking pretty good, though, with a series of higher lows all supported by an ascending trendline, which suggests a trend turnaround could be underway – and if that’s the case, then RSI moving above 60 is just the icing on the cake – it’s a clear sign of real bullish momentum building.

If Silver can now confirm a breakout above $78, then the next stop is probably going to be $80-$82 – but if it fails to make it and gets stuck, then you can probably expect some consolidation back toward $72-$73 to follow.

Trade idea: Consider buying Silver above $78, targeting $82