Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Inflation Bets, Ceasefire Shift Precious Metals Outlook

Market Overview

Gold prices declined during the early Asian session on Wednesday, falling toward $3,327 per ounce, as a de-escalation in Middle East tensions weighed on safe-haven demand. The retreat followed news of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, shifting global market sentiment into a risk-on mode and prompting a rotation out of traditional hedges, such as gold.

Meanwhile, silver prices edged slightly higher, trading near $36.02, supported by persistent expectations of U.S. rate cuts later this year. The gold-to-silver ratio narrowed to 92.4, reflecting relative resilience in silver amid broader market uncertainty.

Fed Testimony in Focus Amid Cautious Policy Stance

Investor attention is now centered on upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to testify before Congress later today. On Tuesday, Powell reiterated the Fed’s data-dependent approach, stating, “We are not in a hurry to move interest rates.”

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid echoed the sentiment, suggesting that policymakers have time to assess inflationary risks linked to U.S. tariffs before taking action.

While Powell’s tone leaned cautious rather than dovish, it helped stabilize gold prices following the geopolitical pullback, as markets interpreted the comments as reinforcing a patient policy stance.

Markets Still Expect Rate Cuts Despite Hawkish Rhetoric

Despite the Fed’s measured language, futures markets continue to forecast policy easing. According to CME FedWatch data, traders are pricing in roughly 50 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first reduction expected as soon as September.

A weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields, likely outcomes of looser monetary policy, are traditionally supportive of gold. “As long as inflation remains contained and geopolitical risks don’t flare up again, Fed expectations will be the key driver for bullion,” said one strategist at ING.

With the ceasefire holding and policy signals mixed, gold remains range-bound but vulnerable to further shifts in central bank rhetoric and macro headlines.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains range-bound below $3,342, with upside limited by channel resistance. A breakout above $3,358 is needed to shift momentum; otherwise, consolidation may persist.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) remains confined within a descending channel on the 4-hour chart, with price stabilizing just above $3,327—closely aligned with the 200-period EMA, which now acts as a key pivot. Despite a brief bounce, the price has yet to break above the upper boundary of the channel or the $3,342 resistance level, limiting any bullish momentum.

The 50-EMA sits higher at $3,358, reinforcing overhead pressure. Until gold closes decisively above the channel resistance and reclaims the $3,374–$3,399 zone, bears remain in control.

The near-term structure favors consolidation unless a breakout above the trendline sparks renewed upside momentum toward $3,428.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $36.02, attempting to build momentum after bouncing off the $35.60 support zone. The 200-period EMA at $34.91 continues to act as a long-term floor, while price remains pinned below the 50-EMA at $36.15—now the immediate barrier to further upside.

A cluster of recent wicks around $35.90 suggests strong dip-buying interest, but the bulls need a decisive close above $36.15 to target $36.42 and beyond. If price stalls or forms a bearish candle near $36.15, short-term weakness could return.

Structure remains neutral until the range between $35.60 and $36.42 breaks with conviction.