Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: NFP Data in Focus as Metals Hold Bullish Trend

Market Overview

Gold advanced in Friday’s Asian session, extending gains after rebounding from a key threshold as traders grew increasingly confident the Federal Reserve will pivot to rate cuts later this year. Market pricing now reflects a near certainty of at least two quarter-point cuts by year-end, beginning as early as September.

The shift has weakened the US Dollar and boosted demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Silver also benefited, with investors adding exposure amid growing conviction that easing monetary policy will sustain safe-haven flows. The metal continues to trade in positive territory, supported by a backdrop of dovish Fed expectations.

Labor Market Weakness Reinforces Safe-Haven Demand

Recent labor data has added weight to the case for policy easing. The ADP employment report showed US private-sector hiring slowed to 54,000 in August, well below both the revised July figure of 106,000 and consensus forecasts of 65,000.

At the same time, weekly jobless claims rose to 237,000, exceeding expectations of 230,000 and pointing toward further cooling in employment conditions.

“Markets are increasingly comfortable with the idea that labor market weakness will give the Fed room to cut rates,” said one senior commodities strategist. Still, the ISM Services PMI came in stronger than expected at 52, signaling resilience in parts of the economy.

Trade Uncertainty and Fed Officials Add Complexity

Beyond economic data, trade policy developments have fueled safe-haven buying. The latest tariff-related rulings underscored the uncertain policy landscape, reinforcing demand for gold and silver as hedges against volatility.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials reflected the delicate balancing act ahead. New York Fed President John Williams projected GDP growth of just 1.25% to 1.5% this year while warning of rising unemployment risks.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted the challenge of moderating inflation without deepening labor market weakness.

Focus Turns to Nonfarm Payrolls

Attention now shifts to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, forecast to show a modest gain of 75,000 jobs and unemployment ticking up to 4.3%. A softer outcome could solidify expectations for imminent rate cuts, further underpinning demand for gold and silver, while a stronger report may temper the dovish narrative.

Both metals remain closely tied to the Fed’s next policy moves, with traders positioning ahead of the critical release.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold consolidates near $3,552, supported at $3,540 with resistance at $3,579, while Silver trades around $40.84, holding support at $40.50 and eyeing resistance at $41.45.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $3,552 after retreating slightly from recent highs, but the broader uptrend remains intact. The price is holding inside an ascending channel, with support at $3,540 and resistance at $3,579. The 50-EMA at $3,518 is acting as a strong dynamic floor, while the 200-EMA at $3,431 reinforces long-term bullish structure.

RSI is at 57, indicating steady momentum without signaling overbought conditions. If buyers maintain control above $3,540, gold could retest $3,579 and move toward $3,614.

A breakdown below $3,540, however, could expose $3,510 as the next support. Overall, gold remains technically positioned for further upside as long as channel support holds.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $40.84, holding within an ascending channel that has guided momentum since late August. The price recently rebounded from support at $40.50, aligned with the 50-EMA, keeping the bullish structure intact. Immediate resistance is at $41.00, followed by $41.45, where sellers have previously capped gains.

On the downside, $40.50 remains the key short-term support, with stronger backing near $40.14. The RSI at 52 signals balanced momentum, suggesting consolidation before the next move.

If buyers clear $41.00, silver could retest $41.45 and potentially extend toward $41.94. A break below $40.50, however, may open the door to deeper pullbacks toward $40.14.