Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Profit-Taking Pullback, Fed Policy Still Supports Bulls

Market Overview

Gold slipped in Asian trading Thursday as calmer bond markets and a firmer U.S. dollar encouraged investors to rotate into equities. The retreat follows a strong two-week rally that drove the metal to record territory, prompting profit-taking. Analysts note the pullback reflects a shift in sentiment rather than a structural change in gold’s longer-term outlook.

“Gold has benefited from safe-haven demand, but calmer markets are reducing the urgency for hedging,” said a Singapore-based commodities strategist. The easing of bond market volatility reduced immediate concerns over systemic risks, allowing equities to draw fresh inflows.

Fed Policy in Focus Amid Labor Market Cooling

Expectations for U.S. monetary policy remain a key driver. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed vacancies falling to 7.18 million in July from a revised 7.35 million in June, highlighting a gradual cooling of the labor market.

Markets are now pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of the year, each of 25 basis points, according to futures data.
Lower interest rates generally weaken the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

This outlook has tempered selling pressure, with many traders cautious ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, seen as critical for confirming the Fed’s next move.

Silver Tracks Gold, Demand Risks Linger

Silver followed gold lower, trading near its weekly lows after shedding close to 1% on Thursday. The decline mirrors reduced safe-haven flows and profit-taking after a sharp advance. Analysts note, however, that silver remains supported by industrial demand dynamics, particularly in electronics and renewable energy sectors, where usage continues to rise.

Both metals remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals. Weekly jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, due later in the day, are expected to offer additional clarity on growth momentum. Traders say a soft set of numbers could reinforce the case for policy easing, potentially stabilizing bullion prices in the near term.

 Short-Term Forecast

Gold trades at $3,542, holding above support at $3,520, with resistance near $3,579. Silver consolidates around $40.91, supported at $40.50, while upside targets remain $41.45–$41.94 in the short term.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading around $3,542 after bouncing from the lower boundary of its rising channel. The price briefly dipped below $3,520 but quickly recovered, showing buyers are still active near support.

The 50-EMA at $3,529 is holding as immediate backing, while the 200-EMA at $3,455 remains a deeper cushion for the trend. RSI sits near 50, recovering from oversold territory, suggesting momentum is stabilizing after a pullback.

Resistance is at $3,579, with further upside toward $3,615 if buyers regain strength. On the downside, $3,512 and $3,475 are the next key supports. Overall, gold is still trending upward, but short-term moves may stay choppy until a clear breakout develops.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $40.91, consolidating within its rising channel after pulling back from the $41.44 resistance zone. The 50-EMA at $40.79 is acting as immediate support, while the 200-EMA near $39.76 provides a deeper cushion. The RSI is steady around 50, showing balanced momentum after cooling off from overbought levels.

Key upside levels are $41.45 and $41.94 if buyers regain control, while support sits at $40.50 and $40.14. A break below the channel floor could open the way toward $39.65. Overall, the trend remains constructive as long as price holds within the channel, but traders should watch for momentum shifts.