Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Risk-Off Flows Boost Metals Despite Cooling Momentum

Market Overview

Gold and silver advanced in early European trading on Friday as investors reassessed the health of the U.S. economy following the prolonged federal shutdown. The dollar hovered near a two-week low, reflecting doubts about the strength of upcoming economic releases.

Economists estimate that the shutdown may have shaved 1.5% to 2% off quarterly GDP growth due to halted operations, missed paychecks, and delayed government spending.

The backlog of unreleased data, including employment, inflation, and productivity figures, has narrowed visibility for markets and complicated the Federal Reserve’s assessment of economic conditions. A senior administration official acknowledged that several October data sets may not be published at all, adding to uncertainty for businesses and investors.

Cautious Market Mood Drives Safe-Haven Interest

Global equity markets drifted lower, reinforcing appetite for defensive assets. With corporate earnings guidance turning more conservative and volatility indicators edging higher, traders rotated toward safe-havens.

Gold and silver benefited from the shift, particularly as the lack of real-time economic information pushed investors toward assets perceived as more stable during periods of reduced clarity.

Analysts note that safe-haven flows have broadened across institutional and retail channels. “Markets are contending with a rare combination of delayed data and a softening macro pulse,” one commodities strategist said. “In that type of environment, metals tend to outperform.”

Fed Signals Caution but Market Expects Further Easing

Federal Reserve officials have warned that the data blackout makes it difficult to gauge underlying inflation trends. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation readings appear “less encouraging than expected,” while Boston Fed President Susan Collins signaled she would avoid supporting additional easing without clearer evidence.

Even so, rate-cut expectations remain firm. The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders assigning roughly a 50% probability to a quarter-point reduction in December and more than 75% odds of another move in January. Lower interest-rate expectations typically support precious metals by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Silver Tracks Gold as Industrial Outlook Softens

Silver moved in tandem with gold, supported by defensive flows and a softer manufacturing backdrop. Sluggish factory indicators across major economies have tempered expectations for near-term industrial demand, but the metal continues to attract buyers seeking diversification within the broader precious-metals complex.

Both metals remain sensitive to upcoming policy signals and any clarity that emerges from delayed U.S. economic releases.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is holding near $4,160 support. A rebound targets $4,220–$4,244, while a break below $4,152 risks a drop toward $4,098. Momentum is cooling but the uptrend remains intact.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is easing after failing to hold above $4,220, slipping back toward the middle of its ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. Price is testing the $4,152–$4,170 support area, which aligns with the channel’s midline and the rising 20-EMA. A clean bounce here would keep the short-term uptrend intact.

The RSI has pulled back from near-overbought territory and is now drifting toward the 50 level, showing cooling momentum but no clear reversal signal.

If buyers defend $4,152, gold may retest $4,244, while a break below this zone could send the market toward $4,098. For now, gold remains in an upward structure but is losing speed.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is pulling back after failing to hold above $53.00, slipping toward the middle of its rising channel on the 4-hour chart. Price is testing the $52.30–$52.50 zone, which aligns with short-term channel support and the rising 20-EMA. A steady hold here keeps the current uptrend intact.

Momentum has cooled, with the RSI dropping from near-overbought levels and moving toward the 50 line. There’s no clear bearish divergence, but the slowdown signals hesitation among buyers.

A bounce from $52.30 could send silver back toward $53.04 and $54.47, while a break below this zone may trigger a move toward $51.46.