Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Traders Await CPI Data as Fed Cuts Loom

Market Overview

Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as investors locked in profits after last week’s surge, which was driven by expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong safe-haven demand. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October and another in December, reflecting growing concern over softening inflation and slowing economic momentum.

Lower interest rates typically support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. “The current gold rally still has scope to extend if the upcoming inflation print doesn’t surprise on the upside,” said Daniel Waterer, a senior analyst at FX Research. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect U.S. CPI to rise 3.1% year-over-year in September, a figure that could reinforce expectations for continued monetary easing.

The U.S. government shutdown, now in its 20th day, has further complicated market outlooks by delaying key economic data releases. With several federal agencies closed, investors and policymakers are operating in a data vacuum ahead of the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting.

Central Bank Policy and Global Trade Outlook

Beyond domestic policy, attention also remains fixed on trade diplomacy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to meet in Malaysia this week, with discussions aimed at improving trade stability. Analysts say the talks could help ease concerns overtariffs and global manufacturing slowdowns, both of which have contributed to investor caution.

Silver Tracks Gold as Industrial Demand Provides Cushion

Silver prices moved lower alongside gold but retained underlying support from industrial demand. The metal’s dual role—as a store of value and a critical industrial component—continues to attract investor interest. Expanding use in solar panels and electrical applications has strengthened long-term demand, offsetting some of the volatility tied to broader risk sentiment.

With both gold and silver consolidating near recent highs, traders are now waiting for new catalysts from U.S. inflation data and central bank policy signals that could define market direction heading into year-end.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $4,327, with resistance at $4,378 and support at $4,266. Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $51.64, facing pressure below $52.32, with support near $50.84.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,327, showing signs of exhaustion after failing to hold above $4,378. The price has slipped below the midline of its ascending channel, with immediate support at the 50-EMA around $4,266.

A drop below this zone could expose the next key support at $4,187, where buyers may attempt to defend the broader uptrend. The RSI near 55 signals weakening momentum, suggesting a potential short-term pullback before any recovery attempt.

On the upside, a close above $4,378 would invalidate the bearish bias and open the way toward $4,430, but near-term sentiment remains slightly tilted to the downside.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $51.64, slipping below the 50-EMA at $52.32, signaling a loss of short-term momentum. The price recently broke below its ascending channel, suggesting that sellers are regaining control.

Immediate support lies at $50.84, followed by the 200-EMA near $49.70, which could act as a stronger demand zone. On the upside, resistance sits at $52.40, and a close above this level could open the path toward $53.47.

The RSI near 42 points to weak momentum, indicating that silver may continue to consolidate or drift lower before any potential recovery attempt.