Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Triple Bottom Emerges as Silver Defends $41 Zone

Market Overview

Gold steadied in early Asian trade after surging past $3,700 earlier this week, buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since December. The 25-basis-point reduction, which lowered the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%, underscored a dovish shift, with policymakers signaling two additional cuts by year-end.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the move as a “risk management cut,” citing a slower pace of job growth and persistent inflation pressures. Updated forecasts show U.S. GDP growth of 1.6% in 2025 and up to 1.9% by 2027, alongside core inflation at 3.1% this year, moderating toward the Fed’s 2% target.

Analysts noted that while the rate cut lifted non-yielding gold to record highs, the rebound in the U.S. dollar is tempering near-term upside.

Silver Tracks Dollar Strength Amid Mild Pullback

Silver edged lower to $41.49, retreating from recent highs as the dollar regained strength following the Fed’s cautious tone. Despite the pullback, analysts see safe-haven flows continuing to support the metal, particularly as inflation-linked uncertainty and currency volatility keep demand for alternative assets intact.

Market strategists point out that silver’s dual role as an industrial and precious metal makes it sensitive to broader macroeconomic trends.

With the Fed signaling gradual easing, silver could benefit from improved liquidity conditions while remaining under pressure from a stronger dollar.

Global Risks Maintain Supportive Backdrop for Precious Metals

Beyond U.S. monetary policy, global risks continue to underpin demand for both gold and silver. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are amplifying safe-haven flows, with investors seeking stability in precious metals against an uncertain backdrop.

Attention now turns to upcoming data releases, including U.S. jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, alongside central bank updates from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan. Analysts suggest that any surprises from these events could fuel short-term volatility, but the broader case for precious metals remains constructive.

“Gold and silver continue to benefit from a perfect mix of rate cuts, inflation risks, and geopolitical uncertainty,” said one commodities strategist. “That combination keeps the bullish case intact even as the dollar attempts to rebound.”

Short-Term Forecast

Gold trades near $3,639, pressured by resistance at $3,685, while silver steadies at $41.49, defending $41.21 support. Short-term outlook favors volatility with upside capped by dollar strength.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading around $3,639, slipping after testing resistance near $3,685. On the 2-hour chart, price action has formed a rising channel, but the latest drop from the C–D leg highlights waning momentum. Candles show rejection wicks near the midline, while the 50-EMA ($3,662) has now flipped into resistance.

The RSI at 35.7 signals bearish pressure, suggesting sellers still control short-term direction. Immediate support lies at $3,614, followed by $3,597, with a deeper floor at $3,579 if selling accelerates.

For bulls, a bounce above $3,656 backed by a bullish engulfing candle could revive upside, targeting $3,685–$3,703.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $41.49, bouncing after testing the $41.21 support zone, where a potential triple bottom pattern is forming. This area is reinforced by the ascending trendline and the 200-EMA ($40.91), making it a key battleground for bulls.

Candlestick behavior shows long lower wicks, signaling rejection of further downside. The RSI at 38.5 is edging out of oversold territory, hinting at recovery potential if momentum strengthens.

For upside, a close above $41.75 could spark a move toward $42.23 and $42.61. On the flip side, failure to defend $41.21 risks a slide toward $40.91–$40.38.