Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Truce Steady, CPI Hotter — Can Gold Defend $4,702 While Silver Eyes $87?

Gold and Silver Steady as Inflation Data Temper Rate-Cut Expectations

Gold and silver were little changed on 13 May 2026 after hotter than anticipated inflation readings in the US in April, and the ongoing review by the market of whether the truce between the US and Iran is a conditional one. April inflation in the US, both headline and core, missed higher, meaning that expectations for central bank rate cuts in the short-term has been pushed back slightly.

Demand from central banks has continued to underpin prices of gold, with China’s People’s Bank of China buying gold for longer than 17 months in a row. Demand from emerging market central banks for gold and silver has also been present.

Silver is currently weighing the reduced flows to the metal as a safe haven on the back of persistent global supply deficits. In-demand from industrial sectors such as solar power, electric vehicles, electronics and artificial intelligence has underpinned prices for the white metal. However, the drop in oil prices is also seen to have reduced the appetite of some buyers of silver in order to hedge against inflation.

With the US-Iran truce still in place and normalisation of the oil flow from the latter gradually happening, the market for both gold and silver is transitioning from the headlines to a fundamentals-based trading environment with the Federal Reserve speaking out later this week.

Gold Spot Reclaims $4,702 – Blue Descending Channel Floor Tested

Gold is trading at 4,702.76 on the 2 hour time frame, bouncing off the 4,686 low on the day, with multiple green rejection candles testing the lower blue descending channel line. Price is respecting the 0.786 Fib retracement level at 4,561, with red MA near 4,715 limiting upside potential. A recent bullish hammer candlestick pattern has confirmed buying interest has returned to the floor of the down-trending channel following a sharp distribution top off of the 4,723 high.

The RSI level is near 48, while there is mild positive divergence on the 2 hour time frame. The volume profile supports the 4,680-4,702 area as strong confluence support, with resistance in the 4,711-4,723 prior swing and 0.382 Fib levels. Price is remaining somewhat stable within a range, but in the multi-week down-channelling structure, it is forming lower lows.

Trade Idea: 4,702, target 4,711, stop loss 4,686.

Silver Spot Surges Above $86 – White Ascending Trendline Breakout

Silver is trading at 86.59 on the 2 hour time frame, blasting higher on the steeply ascending white trendline that started back at the May lows, and printing multiple green engulfing candles along the way. Price cleared the red MA near 84.50 and the prior swing highs, printing higher highs and higher lows.

The RSI level was climbing above 60, confirming the strong price momentum, but was not at an extreme overbought level. The Fibonacci extension is projecting higher towards the 87.26-89.73 area and channel extension is also higher. The blue trendline level is acting as dynamic support near the 84.90 area. A strong confluence volume profile supports the current price level and the area is acting as support near the 84 level. The structure remains above the 82.12 area, confirming a higher low and bullish structure as price rides along the clean up-trending rising channel.

Trade Idea: 86.58, target 87.26, stop loss 85.80.