Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Waller Fuels Cut Talk, Data Caps Upside

Market Overview

Gold hovered near $3,346 during the Asian session on Friday, with traders digesting conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve. A dovish tilt from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who cited rising downside risks and flagged the potential for a rate cut as early as July, provided limited support.

Waller noted signs of labor market weakness, helping pull the US Dollar lower. However, the upside for gold remained constrained as other officials, including Governor Adriana Kugler and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, emphasized the need to keep rates elevated to contain inflation.

This divergence within the Fed has left markets uncertain. While futures still price in roughly 50 basis points of easing by year-end, the timing remains murky. “The labor market is softening, but the Fed hasn’t given investors a unified roadmap,” said a commodities strategist at ANZ.

Silver Tracks Gold Amid Trade Jitters and Rate Doubts

Silver traded flat around $38.28, echoing gold’s cautious tone. While dovish Fed commentary and geopolitical trade concerns added a layer of support, stronger US macro data dampened sentiment.

Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 221,000—the lowest in three months—while June retail sales rebounded 0.6%, topping expectations.

These figures suggest resilient consumer activity and labor strength, reducing the urgency for policy easing and limiting safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Tariff Announcements Inject Trade Risk, Lift Safe-Haven Appeal

Tensions around global trade escalated after tariff proposals targeting over 150 countries were confirmed, including a 50% levy on copper imports. The move sparked fears of renewed inflationary pressures and broader supply chain disruptions.

“Tariffs are inflationary by nature and complicate the Fed’s balancing act,” said an economist at ING. While the broader market remains in a risk-on mood, safe-haven flows into gold have picked up marginally in response to these developments.

Outlook

As investors await the University of Michigan’s sentiment and inflation expectations data, gold and silver remain range-bound. Despite supportive headlines, fundamental conviction is lacking, keeping both metals in a holding pattern.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, showing indecision amid geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds. The price trades near $3,346, just above the 50-EMA ($3,339) and 200-EMA ($3,336), suggesting short-term bullish momentum may build if it holds above these levels.

Immediate resistance is seen at $3,357, followed by the triangle’s upper boundary near $3,374. A breakout could signal upside potential toward $3,392. On the downside, $3,335 and $3,319 remain crucial support levels, with a break below possibly targeting $3,299.

Overall, gold remains range-bound, awaiting a catalyst to resolve the triangle pattern. Watch for U.S. data and geopolitical shifts to provide direction.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $38.28, holding above the key 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $38.01 after a steady recovery from the $36.84 low. The metal remains supported by both the 50-period EMA at $37.93 and the 200-period EMA at $37.15, reinforcing bullish momentum in the short term.

Price action is confined within an ascending trendline, suggesting continued demand on dips. A decisive close above the 0.236 Fib level at $38.44 could open the door for a move toward $38.74 and potentially retest the recent high at $39.12.

However, if silver fails to hold the $38 zone, downside risks emerge toward $37.67 and $37.33, which mark the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.