Hang Seng Index News: Bulls Eye 25,000 as US Data and China Stimulus Lift Sentiment

Hang Seng Index Gets Boost from US Economic Resilience

US retail sales and jobless claims data signaled resilience, easing fears of tariffs triggering an economic recession. Meanwhile, renewed hopes for a US-China trade deal and further stimulus from Beijing boosted demand for Hong Kong and Mainland China-listed stocks.

On Friday, July 18, the Hang Seng Index reversed Thursday’s losses in early trading. Tech stocks led broader market gains.

Key upcoming US consumer confidence data, PBoC rate decisions, trade headlines, and Beijing’s stimulus moves will continue to influence sentiment. These factors could decide if the Index breaks below 24,500 or retests resistance at 25,000.

Hang Seng Index Eyes a Return to 25,000

US equity markets advanced on July 17, extending their gains from the previous session. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.75%, while the Dow rose 0.52%.

Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index rallied 0.94% to an early high of 24,821 before dropping back to 24,728 in early trading on Friday. Upbeat sentiment toward the US economy contributed to the morning gains. Further policy pledges from Beijing and progress on trade talks with Washington were key drivers.

Mainland China markets also posted early gains. The CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.59% and 0.31%, respectively.

Tech Stocks Lead Real Estate Sector Gains

Tech giants Alibaba (9888) and Baidu (9988) rallied 2.84% and 0.93%, respectively, driving the Hang Seng TECH Index up 1.29%. Separately, the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index looked to snap a three-day losing streak, rising 0.74%.

In contrast, EV stocks had a mixed morning, likely due to profit-taking by investors. Geely Auto (0175) slipped 0.11%, while Li Auto (2015) dropped 0.64%, potentially snapping a six-day winning streak.

US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims Lift Sentiment

On July 17, US retail sales and jobless claims data eased concerns about a tariff-triggered US recession. Retail sales increased 0.6% month-on-month in June after falling 0.9% in May. Consumers loosened their purse strings despite expectations that US tariffs would drive up import and consumer prices. Additionally, initial jobless claims dropped from 228k (week ending July 5) to 221k (week ending July 12).

Given that private consumption accounts for over 60% of US GDP, a pickup in spending and a resilient labor market signaled a positive outlook.

Technical Setup: 25,000 Resistance or 24,500 Support?

On July 18, the Hang Seng Index continued to trade above its July congestion zone and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating bullish momentum.

Progress toward a US-China trade deal and further stimulus from Beijing lifted demand for Hong Kong and Mainland-listed stocks.

A trade deal could send the Index toward 25,000. A breakout above the March 19 high of 24,847 and 25,000 could enable the bulls to target 26,000. Conversely, stalled talks may trigger a market sell-off. A drop below 24,500 could bring the 50-day EMA and the crucial 23,500 level into play.

Hang Seng Technical Outlook

• Resistance: 24,874 and 25,000, then 26,000.
• Support: 24,500, followed by 23,770 (50-day EMA) and 23,500.
• Short-term Bias: Bullish, contingent on US-China trade progress, Fed guidance, and Beijing’s stimulus pledges.

Hang Seng Index Forecast: Will the Index Break 25,000 or Drop Below 24,500?

The Hang Seng Index remained above the July congestion zone and the 50-day EMA. Thawing US-China trade tensions lifted the Index above the crucial 24,500 support level.

A US-China trade agreement and stimulus from Beijing could boost hiring, lowering China’s youth unemployment rate. An improving labor market may boost household spending. Lower levies on Chinese goods may also increase external demand. These factors could send the Hang Seng Index beyond the March 19 high of 24,847, toward the 25,000 level.

Conversely, an escalation in US-China trade tensions may further erode corporate profits and affect the labor market. Domestic price wars and weaker consumer sentiment may drag the Index below 24,500, potentially bringing the 50-day EMA and the 23,500 level into play.

On July 18, Beijing pledged further stimulus to boost domestic demand and ease pressures on corporate profit margins. CN Wire reported:

“Trade-in programs drive over 2.9 trillion in sales, with 400 million people benefiting from subsidies in the first half of the year. Will introduce policies to further stimulate consumption, boost services consumption.”

Will the Hang Seng sustain momentum or retreat? Stay informed with real-time updates as geopolitical risks and US-China developments drive sentiment. Follow our live coverage and consult our economic calendar.