Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Will NFP Data Trigger Breakouts?

Market Overview

Gold prices edged higher during early Friday trading in Asia, with spot XAU/USD inching up to around $3,363. However, the yellow metal remains locked in a narrow range as investors await the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May.

This pivotal release could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy through the rest of the year. Silver followed a similar path, stabilizing near $35.94 but showing limited conviction amid low-volume trading and modest U.S. dollar strength.

Dollar Rebounds While Gold Eyes $3,400 Break

The U.S. dollar rebounded from six-week lows reached on Thursday, as traders adjusted their positions ahead of high-impact macroeconomic data. The Dollar Index (DXY) climbed toward 104.15, supported by improving sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.

This modest rebound capped gold’s upside momentum, keeping prices below the psychologically important $3,400 level.

“Until gold closes decisively above $3,400, bulls may remain hesitant,” said David Lennox, a market strategist at Fat Prophets. “The market is looking for confirmation that inflation and labor weakness will force the Fed’s hand.”

Fed Rate Cut Bets Hinge on Job Growth Slowdown

The spotlight now shifts to the U.S. employment report. Economists polled by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 130,000 in May, down from April’s 177,000 gain. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. A weaker-than-expected print could reinforce bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates as early as September.

CME’s FedWatch tool currently prices in a 72% chance of at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end. Recent soft labor data, including higher-than-expected jobless claims and slowing wage growth, underpin that dovish tilt.

Gold and silver—both non-yielding assets—remain highly sensitive to rate outlooks. A softer jobs number may offer the breakout trigger precious metals need to clear current resistance levels. Until then, prices are likely to remain range-bound as markets await clarity.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold eyes $3,384 as long as $3,359 support holds, while silver may consolidate near $35.55 before targeting $36.72 on sustained bullish momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading at $3,363 after struggling to hold above its 50-hour exponential moving average (EMA) near $3,364. The price is leaning against rising trendline support from the May 30 low, offering a potential pivot area just above $3,359. A firm bounce here could keep the bullish structure intact and target $3,384 next.

However, the failure to follow through on recent highs and repeated lower closes near resistance suggests a softening of momentum. If gold slips below $3,359, we could see a move toward the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $3,338.

For now, gold bulls need to defend this zone decisively. The chart still favors upward continuation, but only if $3,359 holds firm under pressure.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is holding firm near $36.04 after breaking out of a multi-week ascending channel. Price pierced above $35.54 resistance and briefly touched $36.17, marking a new multi-month high before easing slightly. This move is backed by strong bullish momentum, with clean separation from both the 50 EMA ($34.24) and 200 EMA ($33.25).

A potential retest of the $35.55 breakout zone could offer support. If that level holds, bulls may target $36.72 and $37.30 next. However, a failure to stay above the breakout point may invite short-term profit-taking.

Silver remains technically strong, but some consolidation is likely before the next leg up unfolds. Watch how it behaves around $35.55—it’s a key area now.