ICE Coffee Futures (KC) Technical Analysis – December 13, 2016 Forecast

March ICE Coffee futures are trading higher after posting a dramatic closing price reversal bottom on Monday. The chart pattern does not mean the trend has changed, but that the market may be ready for a 2 to 3 day short-covering rally. The catalysts behind the move are severely oversold conditions and increased demand. Traders are also paying close attention to the U.S. Dollar. The market could strengthen further if the dollar starts to weaken.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, the closing price reversal bottom and today’s confirmation indicate that momentum may be shifting to the upside. A trade through $138.75 will negate the closing price reversal bottom chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The key upside target is the major retracement zone at $146.45 to $152.80.

Support levels include the reversal bottom at $138.75. There is likely to be a steep drop-off if this price fails as support since the next two targets are the June 1 bottom at $128.15 and the May 4 bottom at $126.00.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $143.55, the next upside targets are a long-term uptrending angle at $145.40 and the major Fibonacci level at $146.45. The daily chart opens up over $146.45 with the next target the major 50% level at $152.80.

It looks as if the momentum is shifting to up so I am anticipating a rally into $145.40 to $146.45.