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Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis April 29, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More
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Analysis and Recommendations: Copper drifted down 4 points to 2.773 while Palladium tumbled over $10 to trade at 772.40. The reports of weak global car
Copper drifted down 4 points to 2.773 while Palladium tumbled over $10 to trade at 772.40. The reports of weak global car sales is weighing heavily on palladium demands while copper is hurt by the overall slowdown in global growth especially in China.
The copper price has recovered from five-and-half-year lows struck in January but at around the $2.70 a pound / $6,000 per tonne level is down double digits from this time last year. Sentiment aside, the outlook for the price of the metal based on the fundamentals of the industry is uneven too.
Most analysts believe demand will moderate but continue to grow at a pace of around 3% – 4%, helped by still robust, albeit slowing, demand from China which consumes 45% of the world’s copper. But on the supply side is where things start to get murky.
The majority of analysts expect copper to move into a surplus this year with as much as 400,000 excess tonnes on the market.
Others, like Christine Melton, principal consultant on copper supply at commodities researcher CRU Group, predict a tiny deficit this year, before a shift to more substantial surplus of 260,000 tonnes next year.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
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Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
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|
AUD |
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks |
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|
|
|
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JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) |
-9.7% |
-7.3% |
-1.7% |
|||
|
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
37.9K |
37.3K |
|
|||
|
GBP |
GDP (YoY) (Q1) |
2.4% |
2.6% |
3.0% |
|
||
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) (Q1) |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
USD |
API Weekly Crude Stock |
|
|
5.500M |
|
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NZD |
Trade Balance (MoM) (Mar) |
|
341M |
50M |
|
||
|
NZD |
ANZ Business Confidence (Apr) |
|
|
35.8% |
|
||
|
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Apr) |
|
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
||
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) (Apr) |
|
-0.1% |
0.5% |
|
||
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q1) |
|
1.0% |
2.2% |
|
||
|
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
|
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
||
|
CAD |
RMPI (MoM) (Mar) |
|
-1.8% |
6.1% |
|
||
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
|
1.0% |
3.1% |
|
||
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|
1.333M |
5.315M |
|
||
|
USD |
FOMC Statement |
|
|
|
|
||
|
USD |
Fed Funds Target Rate |
|
0.25% |
0.25% |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Apr 29 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs
Apr 29 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.0% Apr 2020 Bobl
Apr 29 11:30 UK 3bn 2% Sep 2025 Conventional Gilt
Apr 29 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 06 May
Apr 29 19:00 US 15bn 2-yr FRN, plus 29bn 7-yr Notes
May 05 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
May 06 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 06 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz
May 07 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 07 11:10 France Auctions OATs
May 07 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction
May 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May
May 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Ma
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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