Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

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Published: Aug 3, 2015, 10:40 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Copper tumbled to its lowest point in months after the disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMI report earlier today. Copper

Industrial and Base Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 4, 2015 – Forecast – Copper, Palladium & More

Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper tumbled to its lowest point in months after the disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMI report earlier today. Copper fell 30 points to 2.334 while Palladium added $1.35 as auto sales managed to increasing helping demand. Commodity prices tumbled anew, plunging the S&P GSCI Total Return index to its worst monthly loss since November 2008 and deepening a yearlong rout that few observers expect to moderate.

The index, which tracks a basket of commodities, fell to its lowest level since 2002 on Friday, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. All but one of the 24 index components posted losses for July.

Copper prices have fallen on persistent worries about demand in top consumer China, but losses are muted after weak US data prompted a slide in the US dollar.

The metal marked up its biggest monthly loss since January, while aluminium touched a six-year low.

Volatility hit the market as traders squared their books ahead of the month-end and Chinese factory data fell again last month. Concerns over weaker Chinese growth and rising commodity supply has led to a sell-off in oil and a broader decline in copper, gold and other raw materials, pushing the Bloomberg commodities index to a six-year low.

“Suddenly the energy companies and the miners are on the other side of the boom, with plentiful supply but uncertain demand from China, the world’s largest commodities consumer,” said Gareth Williams, corporate economist at S&P.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Canada – Civic Holiday
CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	47.8	48.3	48.2
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	51.8	51.5	51.5
GBP	Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	51.9	51.6	51.4

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)		0.5%	0.3%
AUD	Interest Rate Decision (Aug)		2.00%	2.00%
GBP	Construction PMI (Jul)		58.4	58.1