Intel Vs. TSMC: AI Surge Boosts Taiwan Semiconductor as Intel Struggles with Losses

Intel Corp (INTC) Q2 2025 earnings show that the company is still in transition. The revenue was flat at $12.9 billion, while GAAP earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.67 due to $1.9 billion in restructuring charges and $800 million in impairment-related costs. Despite these losses, Intel emphasised progress in execution and cost discipline, with management reaffirming a $17 billion operating expense target for 2025 and $18 billion in capital expenditures. Moreover, the company expects revenue between $12.6 billion and $13.6 billion in Q3 2025, with flat to slightly negative EPS, underscoring ongoing headwinds.

On the other hand, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) delivered a standout performance in Q2 2025, reporting $30.07 billion in revenue, up 44.4% year-over-year and a 60.7% surge in net income. Moreover, the diluted EPS increased to $2.47 per ADR, driven by strong demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) chips. The gross margin was also impressive at 58.6%, with operating and net profit margins at 49.6% and 42.7%, respectively.

While Intel works to streamline operations and build a competitive foundry business, TSMC remains the global leader in chip manufacturing, capitalising on booming AI demand and cutting-edge process technologies. TSMC’s outlook for Q3 2025 projects further growth, with expected revenue in between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion. The divergence in earnings results and forecasts highlights the current gap in scale, profitability, and technological execution between the two chip giants.

The earnings gap between the two giants is observed in the chart below. TSMC’s net income steadily increased to $12.95 billion in 2025. However, Intel’s net income dropped sharply, hitting a loss of $2.92 billion. The diverging trend highlights TSMC’s strong market position and Intel’s ongoing challenges. Investors see TSMC as a leader, while Intel remains in a recovery phase.

Intel Technical Analysis

INTC Weekly Chart – Consolidation at Support

From a technical perspective, Intel’s stock price does not yet indicate a strong reversal from current levels. However, the stock has reached a long-term support zone around the $17.50 level. Despite this, the prolonged consolidation between August 2024 and July 2025 has failed to signal a bullish reversal. Therefore, the overall trend remains negative.

A breakdown below $17.50 could push the stock toward the next support region around $12. This $12 level represents a highly oversold zone, from which a potential recovery may emerge. Long-term investors may consider accumulating Intel shares within the $12 to $17.50 range in anticipation of future gains.

INTC Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for Intel shows substantial consolidation between the $27.50 and $18 levels. This prolonged range-bound movement reflects a neutral market stance, as there has been no breakout in either direction. Additionally, the 200-day SMA remains flat, indicating a lack of a clear trend.

A breakout from this consolidation zone will likely signal the next directional move for Intel. However, a decisive break below the $17.50 support would be bearish and could trigger further downside toward the $12 region.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Technical Analysis

TSMC Weekly Chart – Resistance Zones

The weekly chart for TSMC shows that the stock has reached extremely overbought levels in the $250 to $260 region. The red circles marked on the chart indicate that the price is forming a wedge pattern, suggesting potential exhaustion at current highs. Given these overbought conditions, a technical correction may unfold, with potential downside targets at $220, $205, and $190.

Despite the overbought signals, TSMC remains in a broader bullish trend. This indicates strong underlying momentum. Any pullback from current levels may offer a favourable long-term buying opportunity for investors.

However, if selling pressure accelerates amid heightened volatility, a deeper correction could take the stock toward the long-term support zone near $135. This level may act as a key floor in the event of a broader market decline or a shift in sentiment.

TSMC Daily Chart – Overbought Levels

The strong resistance in the $250 to $260 region is also evident on the daily chart. The price is forming a symmetrical broadening wedge pattern on the line chart. The 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, reinforcing the prevailing bullish trend. However, any correction from these levels may be viewed as a buying opportunity for TSMC.