Is Gold Signaling Bitcoin’s Next Bottom?

Bitcoin (BTC) may be quietly flashing a familiar bottom cue, one that often appears when gold (XAU) outshines risk assets.

BTC/XAU RSI Hits Oversold Territory

The BTC/XAU ratio’s daily relative strength index (RSI) has now fallen deep into oversold territory below 30, signaling that Bitcoin is once again underperforming gold to an extreme degree.

This setup has historically coincided with capitulation phases in crypto markets, followed by strong rebounds in BTC/USD once risk appetite returns.

In past cycles, such RSI resets have marked exhaustion points rather than the start of fresh downtrends. Each time the ratio hit these lows, Bitcoin’s dollar price began recovering within days or weeks, as capital rotated back from gold into crypto.

That’s exactly what happened in August 2024 and March 2025, when BTC/USD bounced 30–90% after similar oversold readings on the BTC/XAU chart.

Divergences: The Stronger Bottom Signal

While the current signal is purely oversold, the most powerful historical reversals came when oversold conditions coincided with bullish RSI divergences, when BTC/XAU made lower lows but RSI made higher ones.

These divergences revealed fading downside momentum even as prices slipped, often marking macro turning points. The August 2024 and March 2025 setups both fit this pattern and each triggered a far more sustained Bitcoin rally afterward.

If the same structure forms again in the coming weeks—oversold RSI followed by a higher low in RSI versus a lower low in price—it could strengthen the case for a multimonth BTC/USD recovery phase.

How High Can BTC Price Go On Gold-Led Rebound?

For confirmation, BTC/XAU must reclaim its 20- and 50-day EMAs as support, signaling a shift in relative momentum.

On the BTC/USD chart, a breakout above $116,000 would align perfectly with that rotation signal, while failure to hold $109,000 support could delay recovery.

Looking broadly, BTC is trending inside what appears to be a broadening wedge pattern.

A clear bounce above the consolidation area, aligning with the 20- and 50-day EMAs, may extend the Bitcoin price rally toward the wedge’s upper trendline near $125,000.

A further breakout could mean BTC hitting $150,000, a popular 2025 target. Conversely, failure to hold above the EMA resistance could mean retesting the mid-$109,000 levels for a breakdown toward $100,000.