Barry Norman
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Metals Pack Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast – Silver & Copper

Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver soared 163 points today catching up with gold as precious metals returned to fashion. Silver still remains well under the $20 range at 17.508. Copper gained 20 points to move to 3.06 responding to yesterday’s strong Chinese import and export numbers. Precious metals retained overnight gains on Tuesday to trade near its highest in four weeks as investor appetite for riskier assets eased amid global growth worries, while a softer dollar also underpinned prices of the metal. A sell-off in the stock markets saw gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETF) attracting investors for the first time in a month after heavy outflows.

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Copper climbed to fresh two-week peaks on Tuesday, boosted by technical buying after China reaffirmed plans to step up infrastructure projects to support growth, following robust September trade data. China’s investment growth should pick up in the coming months as authorities hasten construction of water conservation projects and other infrastructure, a senior official at the country’s powerful economic planner said on Tuesday.

That came after China posted a surprisingly strong trade performance in September, soothing worries over a slowdown in the world’s top metals user. September copper imports rose nearly 15 percent from the month before.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

               Cur.                       Event     Actual    Forecast              Previous

                 GBP                     BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (  -2.1%     1.0%      1.3%     

                 AUD                    NAB Business Confidence (Sep)    5                           7            

                 EUR                    French CPI (MoM) (Sep)  -0.4%     -0.3%     0.4%     

                 EUR                    French HICP (MoM) (Sep)               -0.4%     -0.3%     0.5%     

                 EUR                    Spanish CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%      0.2%      0.2%     

                 EUR                    Italian CPI (MoM) (Sep)   -0.4%     -0.3%     -0.4%    

                 GBP                     CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.0%      0.2%      0.4%     

                 GBP                     CPI (YoY) (Sep)    1.2%      1.4%      1.5%     

                 GBP                     PPI Input (MoM) (Sep)     -0.6%     -0.4%     -1.2%    

                 EUR                    German ZEW Conditions (Oct)      3.2         18.0       25.4      

                 EUR                    German ZEW Sentiment (Oct)       -3.6        1.0         6.9        

                 EUR                    Industrial Production (MoM)         -1.8%     -1.6%     0.9%     

                 EUR                    ZEW Economic Sentiment             4.1         7.1         14.2      


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

               Cur.                       Event     Actual    Forecast              Previous

Wednesday, October 15

                 CNY                    CPI (YoY) (Sep)                   1.7%      2.0%     

                 EUR                    ECB President Draghi                                                     

                 GBP                     Claimant Count Change                -35.0K   -37.2K  

                 USD                    Core Retail Sales (MoM)                               0.3%      0.3%     

                 USD                    PPI (MoM) (Sep)                               0.1%      0.0%     

                 USD                    Retail Sales (MoM)                          -0.1%     0.6%     

                 EUR                    ECB President Draghi                                                   

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23


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