Morning Market Update – NZD/USD

A strong resistance in place at the 0.6951 level in the NZD/USD and intraday bias turned bearish. At this point, a deeper fall is mildly in favor as long as 0.6884 minor resistance holds below the 0.6884 will target the 0.6797 support level. A decisive break there will affirm the bearish case of medium term reversal. Nonetheless, breaking of the pair at 0.6884 will suggest that the pull back from 0.6951 is completed and will turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, while the medium term of the pair rebounds strongly but the NZD/USD pair hit a strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. The outlook turned a bit bearish and will turn neutral first. On the downside, a decisive break at the 0.6864 key support will argue that rebound from the 0.6951 level has completed. The corrective structure of rise from the 0.6864 level will in turn suggest that long term up trend is now completed. The pair breaking at the 0.6864 low should then be seen. On the upside, a break of the 0.6884 support level turned resistance will revive the case of trend reversal and target of 0.6951.

The dollar remains under some control over the kiwis as the market continues to fall away. The down days are characterized by strong bear candles. Whilst any recovery upcoming days are beset with struggles to make any headway and will turn in effect into consolidation days. A current strong bearish candle was another indication day where the bears gained to make sustainable impact, before once more resuming the decline in the day. The daily momentum indicators have all now taken on a corrective outlook. The pair trading with the stochastic falling below the 20 level having crossed lower. The pair is back into the old pivot band at the 0.6886 level so it will be interesting to see the reaction. The likelihood is that the support of these levels which has often been seen as an inflection point will now be tested. The four hourly charts show the resistance at the 0.6864 level is bolstered now as a key level, with initially an area of near term overhead supply.

The NZD/USD pair returns to test the 0.6830 level and still below it. As long as the price is below this level, our bearish overview will remain valid for today, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50 which has been broken and holding below it, waiting to head towards the 0.6830 level initially.

On the other hand, the pair at the breaching 0.6886 level will open the way for recovery attempts and return to the main bullish trend again, as the positive targets located at the 0.6951 followed by 0.6972 levels.

The pair’s expected trading range for today is between the 0.6797 support and 0.6884 resistance levels.

Expected trend for today: Bearish

 
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