Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: Forecast Today as Iran Peace Deal Announcement Lifts US Stocks

Iran Deal Sparks Global Rally

The Iran war is over. President Trump announced a deal to end hostilities on Monday. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said a signing ceremony is expected Friday in Switzerland. Crude oil dropped nearly 5% on the news.

Strait Opens, Oil Cracks

Trump authorized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and crude oil broke toward two-month lows within hours as traders stripped out the war premium that had been building since late February. For months, the closure had kept energy costs elevated across the global economy, from manufacturing to shipping to consumer prices. One announcement removed all of it.

The Israel angle complicates things. An exchange of fire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon over the weekend raised doubts about whether Friday’s signing actually happens. President Trump warned about blowing the deal. The market rallied Monday anyway, which tells you how badly traders wanted out of the conflict trade.

Weaker oil prices change the inflation picture, and the drop could not have come at a better time with the Federal Reserve meeting in two days. Crude had been the strongest cost argument the rate hawks had since February.

Is SpaceX Worth $2 Trillion?

SpaceX climbed 6% in pre-market Monday after ripping 19% during its Nasdaq debut Friday. The stock closed its first session at $161 off a $135 pricing, pushing the market capitalization above $2 trillion. Largest initial public offering in history.

Rates Stay, Data Decides

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting on June 16-17 is the next test. CME FedWatch data shows a greater than 98% probability rates stay unchanged. The rate decision is a formality. The question is whether the statement acknowledges that falling crude oil is easing the inflation picture. Any language suggesting the fight is closer to done gives growth stocks more room to rally

Housing and retail sales data also land this week. Looking ahead, the U.S. markets are closed Friday for the Juneteenth holiday, which gives investors four trading days to digest the Iran signing, the Fed decision, and the economic releases. That is a lot of catalysts packed into a shortened week. Low volume could lead to heightened volatility, especially if the Iran deal or the Fed language surprises anyone late in the session on Thursday.

Daily June E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures Technical Analysis

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are sharply higher during the pre-market session on Monday after gapping over a key short-term retracement zone at 7479.50 to 7432.25, making it new support. If the upside momentum created by this move continues to grow then look for the rally to possibly extend into the June 1 all-time high at 7632.25.

Trader reaction to the retracement zone will set the tone today. A sustained move over 7479.50 will be bullish, while a flip under 7432.25 will be a sign of weakness.

Daily June E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures Technical Analysis

June E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are in a strong position ahead of the cash market opening. Currently, the index is trading on the bullish side of a key retracement zone at 29822.25 to 29517.75, making it support.

If investors can continue to build upside momentum on the strong side of 29822.25 then we should see a near-term test of the all-time high at 30807.75. Crossing to the weak side of 29517.75 will signal the return of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling pressure to possibly extend into the 50-day moving average at 28251.47 and the main bottom at 28227.75.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Technical Analysis

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are sharply higher early Monday and with enough upside momentum to possibly take out the all-time high at 51849. The nearest support is a short-term 50% level at 50803.

The major support is a cluster formed by the 50-day moving average at 49788 and the main swing bottom at 49758.

What to Watch

Friday’s signing ceremony in Switzerland is the only thing that matters for the rest of the week. The Israel-Hezbollah exchange over the weekend already tested the deal before the ink is dry, and President Trump warned about blowing it. Without a signature, Monday’s entire move was early.

The Fed meets Wednesday. It isn’t expected to make a move this time, but traders will be eyeing comments on the possibility of a December rate hike. Housing and retail data decide whether the consumer story holds through the second half of 2026.

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures gapped above the retracement zone at 7479.50 to 7432.25 on Monday. Holding above 7479.50 keeps the all-time high at 7632.25 in play. June E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures traders are likely targeting 30807.75. The Dow has enough momentum to test 51849.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.