Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: Tech Stocks Lift US Indices as Traders Bet on a December Cut Today

Stocks Push Higher as Traders Lean Into December Cut Expectations

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq tacked on solid gains mid-morning on Monday, with buyers gravitating toward mega-cap tech as rate-cut bets tightened around December.

The tone wasn’t euphoric, but traders were comfortable leaning into the idea that the Fed is set to ease again, especially after recent remarks from key policymakers signaled the committee is hardly unified heading into the December meeting.

Are Traders Getting More Confident the Fed Will Loosen in December?

Rate expectations firmed up noticeably. FedWatch now shows nearly an 80% chance of a 25-bp cut next month, up from the low-40s range just a week ago — a quick pivot for a market that’s been starved of hard data thanks to the government shutdown.

New York Fed President John Williams’ comments last week helped soften the policy tone, but they also highlighted how split the committee remains.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller pushed that conversation further Monday, saying the labor market still looks soft enough to justify a cut in December. He kept January more open-ended, stressing that the “flood” of delayed data could either support another move or complicate the case if inflation or hiring perk up.

Traders heard the message: December feels close to locked in; anything beyond that is guesswork.

What’s Fueling Sector Moves as Holiday Data Approaches?

Tech led the market again. Alphabet jumped 5.7% and Tesla climbed 4.4%, helping power the Nasdaq nearly 1.9% higher by late afternoon. Only four of the S&P’s 11 sectors were in the green — but the heavyweights were doing enough lifting to keep broader sentiment steady.

The market’s next read on spending comes this week with retail sales and producer prices. With unemployment rising and layoff headlines piling up, consumer strength is getting tested.

Still, the National Retail Federation thinks holiday sales can clear $1 trillion for the first time, and traders will watch names like Best Buy for clues on how the season is shaping up.

Is Tech’s Stretch Still Worrying Traders?

Even with Nvidia’s upbeat outlook last week, some investors remain uneasy about how far valuations have run. The shutdown cut off key economic inputs, leaving markets trading more on feel than on data, and that’s kept pockets of caution alive.

November is still on track for a weak finish, but Deutsche Bank gave bulls something to chew on with a call for the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by end-2026 — the most aggressive target from a major shop so far.

What’s the Market Watching Next?

This week is all about data catch-up and how the Fed interprets what little it has. The Beige Book lands Wednesday, and traders want any hint that the soft-labor-market storyline is still intact.

For now, buyers are present but not aggressive — and that goes for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq. All three have room to firm up if the data that trickles in supports a December cut without raising new inflation worries.

Bottom line: a December move feels close to baked in, but conviction about early-2025 policy stays thin until the data backlog clears.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.