The Week Ahead: Markets Eye Fed Signals and Economic Releases in a Holiday-Shortened Week

Market Overview

Futures started the new week firmer, with Dow futures up 0.27%, S&P 500 futures higher by 0.52%, and Nasdaq-100 futures gaining 0.75% as traders attempt to rebuild risk appetite into the holiday period.

U.S. equities fell again last week as profit-taking in large AI and tech names extended the November pullback. The S&P 500 slipped 1.9%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.7%, and the Dow lost 1.9%.

The central theme this week is the Fed’s December decision. A cut was once seen as certain, but disrupted data releases and mixed labor indicators have left policy outlooks unsettled.

A dovish comment from the New York Fed late last week pushed the implied probability of a December move toward 70%, but the committee remains split as inflation sits near 3% and recent employment readings appear inconsistent.

Tech leadership remains fragile after a month-long reversal in AI stocks. Strong NVIDIA earnings failed to stabilize the sector, and selling pressure continues to weigh on index performance. With liquidity expected to thin during the Thanksgiving week, sharp moves remain possible.

Retailers, enterprise software names, and select hardware companies headline earnings over the next two sessions before activity pauses for the holiday.

Several macro releases—although partially stale due to prior shutdown delays—could still sway short-term sentiment as the market evaluates consumption strength and pricing conditions.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Nov 24
Before the Open:
• Blue Bird (BLBD), est. $1.05
Economic Releases:
• Federal Budget Balance, actual -223.4B (forecast 198.0B)
After the Close:
• Agilent (A), est. $1.58
• Semtech (SMTC), est. $0.44
• Symbotic (SYMB), est. $0.06
• Zoom (ZM), est. $1.44

Tuesday, Nov 25
Before the Open:
• Best Buy (BBY), est. $1.31
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), est. $2.18
• Alibaba (BABA), est. $6.03
• Analog Devices (ADI), est. $2.24
• Burlington Stores (BURL), est. $1.64
• Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), est. $2.70
• Embecta (EMBC), est. $0.46
• J.M. Smucker (SJM), est. $2.10
• Kohl’s (KSS), est. -$0.16
• Nio (NIO), est. -$1.61
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Core PPI m/m, forecast -0.1%
• 13:30 GMT – Core Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.7%
• 13:30 GMT – PPI m/m, forecast -0.1%
• 13:30 GMT – Retail Sales m/m, forecast 0.6%
• 14:00 GMT – HPI m/m, forecast 0.4%
• 14:00 GMT – S&P/CS 20-City HPI y/y, forecast 1.6%
• 15:00 GMT – Pending Home Sales m/m, forecast 0.0%
• 15:00 GMT – Richmond Fed Index, forecast -2 (prior -4)
• 15:00 GMT – Business Inventories m/m, forecast 0.2%
• Tentative – CB Consumer Confidence, forecast 93.4 (prior 94.6)
After the Close:
• Dell (DELL), est. $2.48
• Autodesk (ADSK), est. $2.50
• Guess (GES), est. $0.25
• HP Inc. (HPQ), est. $0.92
• NetApp (NTAP), est. $1.89
• Nutanix (NTNX), est. $0.41
• Petco (WOOF), est. $0.02
• Urban Outfitters (URBN), est. $1.20
• Workday (WDAY), est. $2.17
• Zscaler (ZS), est. $0.86

Wednesday, Nov 26
Before the Open:
• Deere (DE), est. $3.84
• Li Auto (LI), est. $0.70
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 220K
• 13:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.3%
• 13:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 2.9%
• 14:45 GMT – Chicago PMI, forecast 43.8
• 15:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -3.4M
• 17:00 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior -14B
• 19:00 GMT – Beige Book
After the Close:
• NANO Nuclear (NNE), est. -$0.31

Thursday, Nov 27
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Friday, Nov 28
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

The Beige Book releases Wednesday at 19:00 GMT, offering the Fed’s latest read on business conditions. With disrupted data limiting visibility on inflation and labor trends, this report may carry more weight than usual. Recent NY Fed commentary supported the case for a December cut, but committee views remain divided, and incoming survey details could influence expectations.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 46,245.42 (-1.91%), support at 45,452.03, 43,805.60 (52-Week SMA), 43,340.68, 41,981.14, 36,611.78, resistance at 48,431.57.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 22,273.08 (-2.74%), support at 20,905.99, 20,560.17, 20,086.10 (52-Week SMA), 19,334.98, 14,784.03, resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,602.99 (-1.95%), support at 6,360.58, 6,212.69, 6,122.41 (52-Week SMA), 5,943.23, 4,835.04, resistance at 6,920.34.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

This holiday-shortened week centers on delayed inflation data, retail-focused indicators, and earnings tied to consumer strength. Tuesday’s retail sales and PPI prints, though dated, will guide expectations heading into the December meeting. Jobless claims Wednesday offer one of the last clean labor signals before the Fed decision.

Fed communication through the Beige Book may introduce short-term volatility as traders weigh the probability of an additional cut. With liquidity thin, earnings reactions may also produce outsized moves.

Overall, the market tone hinges on whether incoming consumer and pricing data reinforce the case for further easing. These catalysts will drive sentiment into month-end and set the tone for early December positioning.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.