Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Risk Appetite Rises While Safe-Havens Lose Momentum

Market Overview

Gold and silver came under pressure in early European trading as the US dollar held near its strongest level since late May. The dollar’s resilience followed a fresh round of Federal Reserve commentary that offered little clarity on the timing of rate cuts.

New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy remains “modestly restrictive,” noting that inflation continues to ease. His remarks encouraged market participants to price in a potential rate reduction as early as December. But Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan pushed back, arguing the central bank should avoid premature easing until economic data confirms a sustained slowdown.

The diverging views left investors uncertain about the Fed’s next move, reinforcing demand for the dollar and reducing appetite for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

Risk Appetite Improves Across Global Markets

Equity markets in Asia and Europe stabilized after several sessions of volatility, with investors showing renewed willingness to add risk. Strong corporate earnings, firmer industrial data, and expectations of a gentler policy stance from global central banks all contributed to the shift in sentiment.

This gradual improvement in risk appetite has reduced short-term defensive positioning. As institutional flows rotated back into equities and credit markets, safe-haven metals lost some of the momentum that had supported them earlier this month.

Geopolitical Tensions Offer Only Limited Support

Broader geopolitical tensions continue to linger, but their influence on precious metals remains contained. Market participants have monitored developments in several regions, including ongoing negotiations aimed at de-escalation and energy-related disruptions. While these factors provide a mild floor under gold and silver, they have not been strong enough to counter the pressure created by a firmer dollar and rising equity sentiment.

Focus Shifts to Heavy US Data Calendar

Traders now turn to a data-packed US calendar that includes delayed Producer Price Index figures, retail sales numbers, and the Consumer Confidence Index. Later in the week, preliminary third-quarter GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the PCE Price Index—will offer clearer direction for rate expectations.

With policymakers split and markets searching for confirmation, this week’s economic releases are likely to define the dollar’s trajectory and, in turn, shape near-term movement in precious metals.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may attempt a move toward $4,088, while silver holds above $50.01. A break below $4,020 in gold or $49.00 in silver could trigger renewed downside pressure.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading around $4,056, holding above the rising trendline that has supported price since early November. Despite the recent bounce, the metal remains capped below $4,088, where a cluster of previous highs and the 20-EMA continue to act as resistance. The broader structure still shows lower highs from the $4,245 peak, keeping the short-term tone neutral to slightly soft.

The 200-EMA near $4,020 adds another layer of support, aligning with the ascending trendline. The RSI sits near mid-range, reflecting a market waiting for direction.

A close above $4,088 opens the door toward $4,134. A drop below $4,020 would expose $3,996 and $3,945.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading around $50.01, holding just above the ascending trendline that has supported price since late October. The latest bounce came after a dip toward $49.00, where buyers stepped in near the 200-EMA, keeping the broader structure stable despite short-term pressure.

Price remains capped below $50.47, where the 20-EMA and previous highs form a near-term ceiling. The RSI sits below 45, showing weak momentum, though the indicator’s higher lows suggest early signs of stabilization.

If silver breaks above $50.47, it may move toward $51.00 and $52.41. A drop back below $49.00 exposes $48.45 and $47.20.