Oil News: Bearish Oil Outlook Builds as Peace Talks Weigh on Demand and Futures

Oil Slides as Sellers Press Toward Key Support – Crude Oil News Today

Light crude stays on the back foot Monday, and sellers are pushing for a fourth straight session of lower-lows. Traders are eyeing Friday’s low at $57.38 — a break there could open the door to a sharper drop in this shortened week and put the October 20 main bottom at $55.91 back in play. For now, the market still feels heavy, and buyers haven’t shown much interest on weakness.

At 10:41 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $57.71, down $0.38 or -0.60%.

Ukraine Peace Talks Cloud the Oil Prices Forecast

The headline risk is squarely tied to the Ukraine peace talks. Washington and Kyiv are working on a revised agreement ahead of Thursday’s deadline set by President Trump. The first version stirred pushback for being too soft on Moscow, and adjustments are now underway. The market is reading all of this as a potential path to easing sanctions on Russia — a major producer — and that’s keeping crude under pressure.

Normally, fresh U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil would put a floor under prices. Not this time. Traders are more focused on the possibility of sanctions rolling back if the peace deal lands. As Jorge Montepeque of Onyx Capital Group puts it, the market cares far more about the treaty and the U.S. economic backdrop than immediate supply friction. That’s the tone in the room: sellers still pressing because the upside narrative isn’t convincing yet.

Rate Cut Bets Offer Some Support — But Not Much

There’s also the question of Fed policy. The market is trying to decide whether a December rate cut is actually on the table after comments from New York Fed’s John Williams suggested some willingness to ease. That has nudged risk appetite a bit higher, but not enough to flip crude green. Traders see it as a counterbalance — helpful, but not a catalyst.

Still, crude is already down roughly 17% this year. When prices fall this far, value buyers usually start sniffing around. Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet notes that bargain hunting should gradually reappear, and that feels right: at these levels, every drop starts to look a bit stretched. But buyers haven’t stepped in with size yet.

Technical Pressure Still Dominates Oil Prices Projections

Technically, the trend is still controlled by the 50-day moving average at $60.42 and the 200-day moving average at $61.26 — both well above current trade and acting as firm ceilings. On the upside, bulls need to clear the 61.8% retracement at $58.44 and especially the 50% retracement at $59.23 to get momentum back.

Bottom Line: Bias Stays Bearish Unless Buyers Defend $57.38

Unless buyers defend Friday’s low, crude looks set for another leg down toward $55.91. A recovery is possible, but it needs real buying, not just short-covering. For now, the market still leans bearish.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.