Nasdaq 100: Chip Stocks Rally Pre-Market on Forecast of Tariff-Free US Production

Chip Stocks Rally Pre-Market as Investors Bet on Tariff Exemptions

Semiconductor stocks are rising sharply in pre-market trading Thursday, defying expectations after former President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese-made chips. Investors appear to be betting that key U.S.-committed companies will secure exemptions, turning a potential headwind into a competitive advantage for firms with domestic investments.

Which stocks are leading the charge—and why?

Apple jumped 3.1% pre-market after CEO Tim Cook made a high-profile Oval Office appearance and pledged $100 billion in new U.S. investments. Trump’s remarks made clear: companies that “build in the United States” won’t face tariffs. That reassurance pushed investors into Apple, which has aggressively built out its U.S. supply chain in recent years.

AMD rose 2.3%, even after mixed earnings Tuesday. Despite outsourcing manufacturing to Taiwan’s TSMC, its fabless model aligns with U.S. trade priorities under the exemption framework.

Nvidia climbed 1.0% on investor confidence that its $500 billion AI infrastructure plan—announced in April—secures it protection. Analyst targets near $181 are reinforcing the bullish case.

What signals are investors taking from policy developments?

The rally shows markets aren’t reacting blindly to headline risks. Traders are dissecting policy signals and rewarding firms that planned ahead. The leading gainers share three attributes: U.S.-based manufacturing or partnerships, ample capital for domestic expansion, and critical roles in national tech infrastructure.

Tesla gained 0.5% and Meta rose 0.8%, benefiting from easing sentiment around a potential tech decoupling. Even companies without direct chip exposure are seeing upside as the market discounts worst-case trade war scenarios.

What’s the bigger market takeaway?

Trump’s tariff policy appears to be accelerating a “survival of the biggest” trend. Companies without U.S. investments face steep barriers: 100% tariffs, shrinking market share, and costly reshoring pressures. Strategically aligned players, however, are positioned to consolidate leadership in a politically reshaped sector.

How should traders and investors respond?

For momentum traders:

• Favor exemption beneficiaries like NVDA, AMD, AAPL
• Look for continuation in the “TACO trade” if Trump moderates further
• Watch U.S.-committed global players like TSMC and Samsung for follow-through moves

For long-term investors:

• Prioritize firms with U.S. fabs or investment plans
• Avoid pure importers without domestic exposure
• Consider secondary plays such as semiconductor equipment providers tied to U.S. facility buildouts

What’s next on the radar?

Key events to watch include further exemption announcements, updates on TSMC’s Arizona timeline, and potential new U.S. commitments from major Asian chipmakers. The pre-market reaction signals a maturing investor response—less driven by headlines and more focused on strategic positioning.

The real story is not about tariffs—it’s about which firms are using policy changes to entrench long-term market dominance.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.