Natural Gas and Oil Analysis: Market Treads Amidst 8% NG Jump & Global Unrest

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Updated: Feb 21, 2024, 11:05 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Oil markets balance modest gains against demand uncertainties and Middle East supply disruptions, eyeing economic indicators.
Upcoming PMI data and Fed minutes to shed light on demand outlook as higher U.S. rates may dampen oil demand growth.
Stability in oil prices amidst geopolitical tensions and policy shifts, with a close watch on key technical levels for natural gas and oil forecasts.

Global Oil Dynamics: Demand Concerns and Supply Risks

In Asian markets, oil prices remained stable amidst concerns over a dampened demand outlook and the ongoing Middle East conflict’s potential to disrupt supplies. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures both saw modest gains.

Economic indicators from the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan are anticipated, with PMI data and Federal Reserve minutes expected to provide further insights into demand forecasts and interest rate policies.

The Fed’s stance suggests higher U.S. rates may challenge oil demand as economic growth cools. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions, underscored by the U.S.’s veto of a UN Gaza ceasefire resolution, continue to pose risks to oil supply stability.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas Price Chart

In today’s technical outlook for Natural Gas (NG) as of Feb 21, the commodity experienced a slight decline, trading at $1.756, marking a 0.40% dip amid bearish retracement. Overall it jumped over 8% on Tuesday. The pivot point stands at $1.69, serving as a threshold for determining the near-term trend direction. Immediate resistance is observed at $1.79, followed by further barriers at $1.90 and $2.08.

Conversely, support levels are identified at $1.61, with subsequent floors at $1.50 and $1.37. Technical indicators, including the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.73 and the 200-day EMA at $2.09, suggest a nuanced view.

The current positioning below the 200 EMA yet above the 50 EMA and pivot point underscores a mixed sentiment. The outlook is bullish above the pivot point of $1.69, indicating potential for upward movement if this level holds as support.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

During the Asian session, USOIL‘s is trading at $77.26, marking a minor retreat of 0.06%. The pivotal point for the asset is $76.99, a critical juncture for trend determination. Resistance is charted at $78.47, $79.27, and $80.36, while support levels are established at $75.66, $74.66, and $73.57.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is $77.05, and the 200-day EMA is $75.49, both suggesting underlying market strength. A recent breach of the upward trendline near $77.50 hints at potential volatility, yet the positioning above both EMAs signals a strong foundation for rebound.

Conclusively, the trend for USOIL leans bullish provided it sustains above the $76.99 pivot, indicating a propensity for upward movement contingent on maintaining this critical support level.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

In today’s analysis of UKOIL, the price slightly declined to $82.61, a 0.04% decrease. The pivot point at $82.07 is crucial for the day’s sentiment. Resistance levels are noted at $84.00, $85.78, and $87.35, with supports at $80.68, $79.31, and $77.73.

The 50-day EMA stands at $82.20, and the 200-day EMA at $80.61, indicating resilience in the market. An upward trendline near the pivot underscores potential bullish momentum.

With prices above the pivot and key EMAs, the trend is bullish, suggesting sustained upward movement if the pivot level holds, highlighting the market’s current strength and potential direction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.