Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Brent Near $72.30 Fibonacci Cap – Break or Pullback?

Oil and Natural Gas Rally as Geopolitical Tensions Lift Supply Risk Premium

Crude oil futures just shot up past $66 a barrel, and are now knocking on the door of a six-month high, all while posting a weekly gain of over 5% – that’s a pretty big jump. All this is happening as the world teeters on the brink of escalating geopolitical tensions, which are making people really nervous about the possibility of supply problems down the line.

One of the things spooking markets is the risk of tighter global supplies, especially through the key export routes that handle much of the crude oil from the Middle East.

Domestic fundamentals were also fueling this rally. We got some US govt data that said crude oil stockpiles fell by 9 million barrels last week, which is the biggest decline we’ve seen since early Sept, and that’s a pretty strong sign that demand is still pretty healthy and that supplies are getting a bit tighter.

Put all this together with the rising uncertainty and falling stockpiles, and you get oil and natural gas forecasts looking a lot more positive – and that’s just adding to the short-term bullish momentum in energy markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Holds $2.98 Above 0.236 Fib – Compression Before Next Move?

Natural Gas futures are trading at around $2.98 on the 4-hour chart and they’ve been consolidating just below the 0.236 level at $3.30. After the sharp rally from below $1 to the $4.30 peak, the price then retraced back and is now just hanging around between $2.65 and $3.30 resistance.

The recent candles have been showing some pretty small real bodies near $3, which is telling us that the price is pretty much just balancing out right now and not putting up any real fight in any particular direction.

The 50 moving average is sitting just above the current price at around $3.30 and then there’s the 200 moving average sitting at $2.50, which is still working in the bulls favor over the longer term. RSI is around 50 which is pretty neutral on the momentum front. A break above $3.30 could be seen as targeting $3.90 but if the price fails then a move back down to $2.10 is also a possibility.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $3.35 and aiming to get to $3.90, with a stop loss below $2.65.

WTI Oil Price Forecast: Tests $67 Breakout Zone After Trendline Reclaim

WTI crude is sitting at around $66 on the 4-hour chart having broken through a support trendline and then turned around to reclaim the $65.50 resistance area. The price has been making some strong gains from the $61.90 level where the price seemed to really respect that rising channel and 200 day moving average. The last few candles are showing smaller bodies near $67.00, which is a sign the price is hesitating just below a horizontal resistance level.

The short term structure has been supported by a rising 50 moving average which is hovering around $64.10. RSI is around 60, which is showing that the momentum is moving in a positive direction but isn’t getting too out of hand.

If we look at the Fibonacci extension running from $61.90 to $67.00 then the potential upside target is towards $68.00, but if it fails to break through, then retesting the $65.50 level is a possibility.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $67, setting your sights on $68, with a stop loss below $65.50.

Brent Oil Price Forecast: Near $72.30 Fibonacci Cap – Breakout or Pullback Toward $70?

Brent crude is trading at around $71 on the 4-hour chart after a pretty strong push from the $66.80 level. The price has been moving up to the 0.236 level at around $71.00 and is now testing the high of the recent swing at $72.30. The last few candles have shown smaller bodies and upper wicks around $72, which are both telling us that the price is hesitating right under the resistance level.

The rising trendline from $66.80 is still intact and the 50 moving average is supporting the short term structure at around $68.90. RSI is also around 62 but it’s getting a little close to overbought territory.

If the price can manage to break above $72.30 then it might have a good shot at getting all the way to $73.25, but if it doesn’t, then a retracement back towards $70.20 or $69.50 is looking more likely.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $72.40 and then aim to reach $73.25, with a stop loss below $70.90.