Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Can WTI Sustain Above $66 Amid Uncertainty?

Market Overview

WTI crude futures hovered just shy of a six-month high at a little over $66.20 a barrel, as the markets carefully considered the juggling act of escalating geopolitical tensions against the ongoing diplomatic efforts to find a way out of the crisis.

It’s these persistent worries about potential supply disruptions that are giving crude prices a bit of a boost, even though many experts are still predicting a pretty sizeable surplus by the end of the year. Brent crude has similarly managed to hold its ground above $71, and that’s largely because of a growing risk premium across the energy markets.

Natural gas prices are feeling the same kind of stress, as traders grapple with all the shifting variables – and new trade policies that could easily mess up supply chains and demand forecasts. All these different factors are coming together to make natural gas prices even more volatile.

Even though the longer term picture suggests there’s going to be plenty of global inventories around, all this near term uncertainty is giving prices a bit of a resilience.

Natural Gas Analysis: NG Holds $2.95 Trendline as $3.08 Caps Recovery

WTI crude oil futures on the 1 hour chart are currently trading at $2.997 and are stabilizing nicely above that trendline which started at $2.88. And after price recently tested that $3.25 resistance zone and then pulled back down towards that $2.95-$2.98 support zone, things have taken a turn for the positive – buyers are once again stepping in to defend the structure.

The 50 EMA is sitting in the vicinity of $3.05, which is doing a great job of acting as short term resistance, while the 200 EMA is parked at $3.08 and is very much reinforcing the ceiling. Candlesticks are showing some interesting stuff too – smaller bodies and long wicks after that sharp spike.

If we can get a sustained move above $3.08 then the next logical stop would be $3.15 – and if we get a break below $2.94 then that exposes the $2.88 area.

Trade idea: Looking to buy above a sustained breakout above $3.08 – stop loss is below $2.97, target is $3.15.

WTI Crude Oil Analysis: USOIL Holds $66.00 as Ascending Trendline Guides Bulls

WTI crude oil on the 1-hour chart has settled around $66.86, safely above the support zone typically around $66.08. That zone is a handy reference point because it’s where price consolidated before – a good place to pick up some buying clues. And as it happens, price is nicely contained within a short-term ascending channel, guided higher by a trendline that began at $62.00.

If that wasn’t enough, the 50-period EMA lurking in the neighborhood of $65.50 is acting as a rock-solid support point, while the 200 EMA hovering around $64.50 is telling us the big-picture bias. A breakout above that minor triangle at $66.50 has opened up the possibility of a run towards $67.14.

Trade idea: Looking to buy near $66.10 with a stop loss below $65.30 – the target is $67.50.

Brent Crude Oil Analysis: UKOIL Defends $71.02 as Trendline Support Tightens

Brent crude on the 1-hour chart is just sitting at $71.60, holding nicely above the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $71.02 after bouncing back from a low of $66.84. So the structure looks pretty solid – higher highs and higher lows, guided by that trendline which started its life around the recent base.

The 50 EMA is hovering around $70.80, which is doing a great job of supporting short-term pullbacks, while the 200 EMA is parked just below at $69.50 and is very much confirming the bigger-picture bias. And looking at those recent candles, we can see that the bulls are very much still in control – consolidating nicely beneath that resistance zone at $72.31, actually forming a mini triangle within the bigger picture.

If we see a break above $72.00, then the next stop is probably $73.18 – and if we don’t see a break above $70.22, then that’s going to be the key support level.

Trade idea: Buy dips at $71.00; stop loss below $70.20; target $72.80.