Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Energy Markets Rattle as U.S. Stockpiles Surge 3.5M Barrels

Market Overview

Crude oil prices fell over $1 on Thursday, dragged down by renewed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East and a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. inventories.

Brent and WTI both declined by roughly 0.8% midweek, as the potential easing of sanctions raised the prospect of increased global supply. U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million last week, far above the projected 1.1 million-barrel draw.

Additional bearish pressure came from a 4.3 million-barrel build in API data. Analysts expect oil to remain range-bound near $55–$65, with downside risks toward $50 if geopolitical tensions cool.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas Futures are holding firm at $3.458, sitting just above a confluence of support—the ascending trendline from late April and the prior demand zone near $3.423. This area also aligns with previous breakout structure, making it a crucial level for bulls to defend.

Price recently dipped below the 50 EMA ($3.593), but it’s not showing impulsive selling, suggesting the move is corrective. If price bounces here and reclaims $3.594, it could trigger a short-term bullish reversal.

Watch for a higher low and bullish engulfing or morning star pattern near this zone. Momentum remains neutral, but structure still favors the uptrend as long as $3.423 holds.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil just broke down from its rising channel, slipping below the $61.64 pivot and settling at $61.03. That lower channel breach, paired with a bearish engulfing candle right at the top of the range, suggests sellers are gaining control.

USOIL is also showing the price trade below the 50-hour EMA ($62.42) for the first time in over a week—a clear shift in short-term momentum. What’s more telling is the formation of three consecutive bearish candles with long upper wicks—close to a “three black crows” structure—hinting at exhaustion from the bulls.

No bullish divergence on the RSI yet, which remains neutral, and there’s no reversal signal in sight. Unless you see a strong reclaim of $61.64, the next real test sits at $60.18.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude is under pressure after breaking below its rising channel and the 50-hour EMA, now trading at $64.35. The rejection near $66.73 was clean, confirmed by a bearish engulfing candle followed by a lower high—a classic sign of trend exhaustion.

What’s more, the price formed a series of small-bodied candles before the breakdown, including a spinning top, which hinted at indecision before momentum flipped. Now we’re seeing consistent lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish reversal patterns yet.

Support sits near $63.87, and if that gives way, $63.12 could be next. Unless bulls reclaim $65.28 quickly, Brent looks vulnerable to further downside in the near term.