Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: EU Sanctions and U.S. Trade Pact Shift Market Bias

Market Overview

WTI crude futures rose to $66.80 per barrel on Tuesday, marking a one-week high, as escalating geopolitical tensions raised concerns over global supply disruptions. Market sentiment turned bullish after a revised deadline for peace efforts was announced, potentially averted sanctions that could further strain energy flows.

Meanwhile, a fresh EU sanctions package targeting Russian oil—with tighter price caps and financial curbs—added to supply risks. A new US-EU trade agreement, which introduces a 15% tariff on European goods alongside Japan’s deal, has eased demand concerns.

With global negotiations ongoing, particularly between major economies, traders are closely monitoring developments that could significantly impact the short-term energy landscape.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $3.13, attempting to hold above the $3.06 low while testing the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $3.19. Despite bearish momentum, short-term price action shows consolidation within a tight range.

A breakout above $3.19 could pave the way toward $3.27 (38.2% Fib) and $3.34 (50% Fib), though the downtrend remains intact under the 50-EMA ($3.19) and 100-EMA ($3.28).

On the downside, a break below $3.06 risks further losses toward $2.97. Bulls need a clean reclaim of $3.34 and EMAs to shift momentum back upward.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is consolidating near $66.63 after facing resistance at the descending trendline and horizontal barrier at $67.12. Despite a brief rally above both the 50-EMA ($66.09) and 100-EMA ($66.23), bulls are struggling to maintain momentum.

Price remains range-bound between $65.61 and $67.12, with volume fading near the upper bound. A clean break above $67.12 could open a path toward $67.78 and $68.60. However, failure to reclaim the trendline may drag price back toward the $65.61–$64.82 support zone.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $69.24, struggling to clear a descending trendline resistance that has capped recent rallies. Despite a strong recovery from the $68.23 support and a reclaim of both the 50-EMA ($68.86) and 100-EMA ($68.89), bulls face pressure just below the $69.80 barrier.

Price remains trapped in a tightening wedge pattern, with a breakout above $69.80 needed to signal trend continuation toward $70.71 and $71.49. On the downside, failure to hold above the EMAs could drag Brent back toward $68.23 and $67.53.