Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Optimism Faces Pressure From Inventory Surge

Market Overview

WTI crude oil futures edged back toward $67 per barrel, recouping recent losses as traders weighed robust demand indicators and global supply risks. A seasonal surge in U.S. gasoline consumption and stronger-than-expected China Q2 GDP growth eased concerns over energy demand, reinforcing OPEC+’s outlook for higher global oil consumption in H2 2025, led by India, China, and the U.S.

A production halt at Iraq’s Sarsang field added a geopolitical risk premium, though upside remained limited after U.S. crude inventories surged by 19.1 million barrels, hitting a record high and signaling near-term oversupply despite improving fundamentals.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NGQ2025) has extended its bullish recovery, trading around $3.541 after breaking above key resistance at $3.502. The price is trending within a rising channel and now sits above both the 50-period EMA ($3.432) and the 200-period EMA ($3.498)—a short-term bullish signal.

The next hurdle lies at $3.574, followed by stronger resistance near $3.650. A close above these levels could open the door toward $3.752, marking a deeper retracement of the prior decline.

On the downside, support is seen at $3.502 and $3.402, where the lower channel boundary and EMA zones may cushion any pullback. A sustained move below $3.402 would weaken the current bullish structure.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading near $66.75, holding just above a rising trendline support that extends from late June. The price remains confined below both the 50-period EMA ($67.24) and 200-period EMA ($67.25), signaling persistent bearish pressure.

Despite the recent bounce, the failure to break above $67.08 suggests weak momentum. A clean move above this level could expose the $67.81 resistance, followed by $68.82, a key lower high from the recent downtrend. Conversely, a break below $66.22 would signal a bearish continuation, with next supports at $65.55 and $64.58.

Until a decisive breakout occurs, traders may remain cautious, with trendline support and EMA resistance defining the short-term range.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading near $68.84, testing the lower boundary of an ascending channel. The price is hovering below the 50-period EMA at $69.27 and the 200-period EMA at $69.08, signaling hesitation near dynamic resistance. Price has held above the channel support since late June, suggesting buyers are still defending the trend.

A clean break above $69.27 would open the door to retest the $70.27 resistance level. Above that, bulls may target the previous swing high at $71.50. However, failure to hold the lower trendline or a breakdown below $68.49 could lead to further downside toward $66.88 and $65.74. Price action remains in a tight range, with upcoming momentum likely to set the next directional move.