Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Holds 50-Day MA at $3323.30 as Dollar Weakens, Yields Ease

Gold Holds Above Key Technical Levels as Dollar Weakens and Yields Ease

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, holding above the 50-day moving average at $3323.30, bolstered by a softening U.S. dollar and easing Treasury yields.

The yellow metal remains range-bound, with resistance capped at $3347.97 and $3375.08. Support is seen at $3323.40 and last week’s low of $3282.66.

At 11:29 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3335.75, up $10.74 or +0.32%.

The retreat in the dollar index from a one-month high helped lift gold, as it made bullion more attractive to holders of other currencies.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year yield pulled back from Tuesday’s peak of 4.491% to 4.447%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Fed Rate Expectations Shift on Inflation Signals and Trade Tariffs

June’s U.S. Consumer Price Index rose the most in five months, with tariff-related inflation lifting the cost of core goods such as audio equipment and furnishings. While President Trump called for immediate rate cuts, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized patience, suggesting rates may remain on hold to assess inflation risks.

Markets are now pricing in 44 basis points of Fed easing by December, down from over 50 bps earlier in the week. The retreat in rate cut expectations is tempering gold’s upside momentum. Still, continued disinflation in services could pave the way for a September cut, providing a tailwind for bullion.

Geopolitical Risk and Trump’s Tariff Push Keep Safe-Haven Demand Alive

Gold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand, with global investors wary of economic fallout from trade tensions. President Trump’s threat to impose 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU beginning August 1 has added uncertainty. Although Trump expressed openness to further negotiations, the market remains cautious.

Trump also announced a trade deal with Indonesia that reduced proposed tariffs to 19% from 32%, and signaled progress with Vietnam. These headlines suggest the administration is attempting to strike deals ahead of implementing broader tariffs, though policy volatility remains a concern.

Gold Prices Forecast: Cautious Bullish Bias with Volatility Building

With gold coiling between intermediate support at $3244.41 and resistance at $3451.53, traders are positioning for a breakout as price compression builds. Longer-term resistance stands at the all-time high of $3500.20.

While Fed indecision and a mixed inflation picture are capping immediate upside, a weaker dollar, stable Treasury yields, and tariff risks provide underlying support.

Unless a strong catalyst emerges, gold is likely to consolidate within the current band. However, should PPI data confirm broader inflation trends, a break above $3375 could open the door toward $3450.

Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact, but sustained upside depends on rate guidance and inflation data.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.