Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Prices Rebound as Geopolitical Tensions Tighten Supply

Market Overview

WTI crude oil climbed toward $59 per barrel, rebounding from a five-month low as global supply worries eased amid renewed geopolitical tensions. Markets drew support from expectations of reduced Russian oil flows, even as the IEA warned of a potential 4 million barrels-per-day surplus by 2026.

However, U.S. crude inventories surged 7.4 million barrels last week, signaling soft demand. Natural gas prices followed oil higher, with traders weighing the opposing forces of rising stockpiles and tightening geopolitical conditions.

The market remains volatile, balancing production uncertainty against weak consumption forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas is trading near $3.05, attempting to stabilize after a sharp correction from the $3.39 area. The price is currently forming a potential double-bottom pattern near $2.96, signaling possible exhaustion of bearish momentum.

The 50-EMA at $3.16 and 200-EMA at $3.27 remain key resistance levels, aligning with the Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zones, where sellers have historically re-entered. A break above $3.12 could confirm a short-term recovery toward $3.17 and $3.22, while a failure to clear this area may lead to another retest of $2.96.

The RSI at 40.9 shows early signs of bullish divergence, hinting at slowing downside pressure. If buyers hold the $2.96 support, Natural Gas could stage a gradual rebound toward $3.20 in the near term.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil is trading around $58.78, struggling to break above its short-term descending trendline resistance near $59.30. The price has been consolidating between $58.20 and $59.00, with sellers defending the 50-EMA at $59.34. A breakout above this area could open the path toward $60.50 and $61.20, key Fibonacci retracement zones.

Meanwhile, support lies at $58.20, and a close below this level may drag prices toward $57.60 or even $56.80. The RSI near 47 suggests neutral momentum, hinting at potential range-bound trading before a directional move.

For now, traders are waiting for a decisive close beyond the $59–$60 zone to confirm the next trend direction.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil is trading near $62.44, consolidating in a narrow range between $61.77 and $62.84 after failing to break above its short-term descending channel resistance. The broader trend remains bearish, with prices staying below the 50-EMA ($63.12) and 200-EMA ($65.05), reinforcing selling pressure.

A sustained move above $62.80 could signal an early breakout, targeting $63.90 and $65.30, where stronger resistance awaits. However, if sellers regain control, a drop below $61.40 could open the door toward $60.97 and $60.10.

The RSI near 46 shows mild recovery from oversold territory, suggesting limited upside unless momentum strengthens. For now, Brent remains range-bound, awaiting a decisive breakout for clearer direction.