Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Sanction Delay Cools Rally, Crude Risks Deeper Pullback

Market Overview

Crude oil prices slipped Tuesday as a delayed timeline for potential sanctions eased immediate concerns over disrupted supply. Market sentiment shifted after a proposed 50-day grace period on punitive measures raised doubts about enforcement, prompting traders to reassess near-term risks.

While earlier threats of trade tariffs and sanctions had lifted oil prices, the softened approach spurred pullbacks. Analysts warn that if full sanctions are eventually implemented, key crude buyers could face tough trade-offs.

Meanwhile, weaker Chinese economic data and broader tariff risks are clouding demand expectations. Still, OPEC projects robust demand through Q3, helping to keep oil markets temporarily balanced.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NGQ2025) is easing from its recent high of $3.497 and testing the lower bound of an ascending channel near $3.386. The pair remains above the 50-EMA ($3.389), which is now acting as short-term dynamic support. A break below this level could open the door to $3.292 and $3.212, marking key horizontal supports.

To the upside, a bounce from this zone could see bulls reattempt $3.497, with potential continuation toward the 200-EMA ($3.498) and higher. Momentum remains cautiously bullish while inside the channel, but the failure to reclaim recent highs may indicate buyer exhaustion. The $3.386–$3.389 area is a make-or-break zone heading into midweek trade.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has broken below the lower boundary of its rising channel near $67.12, confirming short-term bearish pressure. Price is now testing horizontal support at $66.46, with a clean break potentially exposing further downside toward $66.41 and the next key level at $65.55.

The 50-EMA ($67.57) and 200-EMA ($67.32) are both now overhead resistance, suggesting sellers remain in control. Momentum has shifted bearish as price struggles to reclaim key intraday zones.

If bulls fail to defend the current support, downside continuation could accelerate toward $64.58. A return above $67.12 is needed to shift bias back toward neutral. For now, bears have the upper hand.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude (UKOIL) has broken below its ascending channel support and is now testing a key horizontal level at $68.49. A sustained move below this could expose downside targets at $66.76, followed by $65.44 and $64.25. The 50-EMA ($69.49) and 200-EMA ($69.11) are both above price action, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Price is now firmly below the 0.236 Fibonacci level ($69.96) and struggling to reclaim broken support. The short-term bias remains bearish unless bulls reclaim the $70.00 handle.