Oil Pulls Back to $93 as Strait Risks Sustain Energy Premium
WTI crude is currently trading between $93- $94.50 a barrel, pulling back a bit from those high points of $98 to $101, following some tentative signs that a supply relief is on the way and that things in the Middle East aren’t about to get a whole lot worse.
Prices are still higher for the month though, and that’s the main point – they’ve gone up a lot because there’s a big fear that things could get really messed up in the Strait of Hormuz and that’s taking a chunk of that off. That’s basically a ‘geopolitical premium’ taking the price up.
The market is trying to figure out what additional oil might be coming in from Iran – we’re talking a potential 140 million barrels that are just floating around waiting to be picked up. That’s kind of taking a bit of the edge off the supply worries.
Brent is still trading above $100, which makes sense given all that’s going on in the region – it’s just a reminder that there’s still plenty of risk out there.
Energy forecasts are all over the place right now but the EIA is thinking Brent will average above $95 over the near term.
Natural Gas Price Forecast: $3.10 Support Holds as Descending Trendline Caps $3.26
Natural Gas futures are trading around $3.145 on the 4 hour chart, still managing to stay above that key support zone at $3.10-$3.03 while also pushing up against a descending trendline from the $3.48 swing high. Price is still stuck between short term rising support and longer term resistance at $3.26 – which suggests that there’s a bit of a build up going on.
The 50-period moving average is flattening out around $3.11, and the RSI is hovering around 55 – which, while not suggesting anything too extreme, does suggest some pretty neutral to bullish energy.
A break above $3.26 would probably open the door to $3.37 & $3.48, but if we see a close below $3.03, then $2.92 and potentially $2.82 become targets, which in that case, would suggest a bearish short term bias.
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See all Natural Gas forecastsWTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bulls Defend $92.99 Support, Eyes on $100 Breakout
WTI oil is trading around $94.60 on the 4 hour chart, still clinging to the $92.99 level & an uptrend line that started from the $76.66 swing low. Price is being held up by the 50-period moving average which is still rising, indicating that – despite some recent sideways movement below $98 – there’s still a pretty solid bullish foundation in place.
The bigger picture retracement from $119.41 is still intact, but the fact that we’re seeing higher lows suggests that there’s still buying going on. At the moment resistance sits at $98-$100, with $103.08 just beyond that. If price is going to break below $92.90, then $86.75 becomes a target, and the momentum in the short term is likely to turn bearish. Right now, the RSI is hovering around 50, which suggests that momentum is pretty neutral – and that’s before we even start thinking about potential volatility expanding.
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast: Holding $106 Support, $114 Back in Focus
Brent oil is trading around $108.12 on the 4 hour chart, and is managing to stay above that $106.55-$106 support zone while also still clinging to its uptrend line from the $87.10 swing low. Price structure is still looking pretty bullish, and even though there was a bit of a rejection from $119.44, the higher highs and higher lows are both intact.
The 50-period moving average is still sloping upwards, which means it’s continuing to tell us that momentum is pretty strong, and the RSI is hovering around 60 – which, while not as high as it could be, does suggest some controlled – but still pretty solid – bullish energy.
Resistance, at the moment, sits at $114.47, followed by the recent spike high of $119.44. But if we do manage to break above $114, then it’s likely that we’ll see renewed upside momentum kick in.
If we’re going to see things turn bearish in the short term, then a close below $106 would probably expose $100.22, and potentially $94.31 and that would suggest that we’re into corrective consolidation territory rather than continuation.
