Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Upward Trendline to Drive Buying in Energy Sector?

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Updated: Apr 17, 2024, 10:04 UTC

Key Points:

Early Wednesday trading shows oil prices down due to weak demand signals from China and rising U.S. stockpiles.
Middle East conflicts, particularly Iran's actions, have yet to significantly disrupt global oil prices.
Mixed economic data from China in March underlines continuing weak domestic demand, casting a shadow on energy forecasts.

Market Overview

Oil prices declined in early trading on Wednesday, influenced by concerns over global demand triggered by economic stagnation in China and a potential increase in U.S. commercial oil stockpiles. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s attack on Israel, the anticipated response has not escalated oil prices as expected.

Market analysts suggest that the situation might remain contained, with possible intervention from major oil producers like Saudi Arabia to stabilize global supply. In the U.S., an unexpected rise in crude inventories further pressured oil prices, reflecting broader economic uncertainties.

Meanwhile, China’s mixed economic indicators for March, showing weak domestic demand, add to the complexities affecting the oil and natural gas forecast, indicating a bearish outlook for energy prices in the near term.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

On April 17, Natural Gas (NG) saw its price increase to $1.89, up by 0.80%. Currently trading just above its pivot point at $1.85, NG faces resistance levels at $1.94, $1.99, and $2.04. Surpassing these marks could reinforce a bullish outlook.

Conversely, if NG dips below its pivot, support might be found at $1.78, $1.72, and $1.68, where a breakdown could trigger a steeper selling trend. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.91 and the 200-day EMA at $1.90 suggest that prices are hovering near a critical junction.

Staying above $1.85 is pivotal to maintain the current upward trajectory.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL experienced a minor setback, trading at $84.77, down by 0.44%. Currently trading just above its pivot point of $84.68, USOIL faces immediate resistance levels at $86.63, followed by $87.63 and $88.53. Should the price advance past these markers, it could signal strengthening momentum. Conversely, if it dips below the pivot, support can be found at $83.62, $82.31, and $80.95, with a potential to intensify selling pressure if these levels are breached.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is set at $85.33, suggesting slight bearish pressure as the price hovers below this level. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA at $82.55 provides a longer-term bullish outlook, indicating that the overall trend may still favor the bulls. Traders should watch the $84.68 level closely; maintaining above this pivot could prevent a steeper decline and stabilize the price.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

UKOIL trading at $89.48, marking a decrease of 0.554%. Positioned slightly below its pivotal level of $90.14, the commodity faces upcoming resistance at $90.92, with subsequent levels at $91.83 and $92.89. Should it surpass these thresholds, a bullish continuation could be indicated.

Conversely, support levels are established at $88.78, $87.64, and further down at $86.37. A drop below the pivot could intensify selling pressures. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $89.80, nearly aligned with current pricing, while the 200-day EMA at $86.93 suggests an underlying bullish sentiment in the longer term. Maintaining above $90.14 is critical for continued upward momentum.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.