Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Leave Energy Markets on a Knife’s Edge – Goldman Ups The Ante On Brent, to $110
WTI Crude is dancing in a tight range between $93 and $95.50, while Brent is hovering at $107, thanks to a pretty hefty premium tied to the ongoing Hormuz disruption – this one accounts for about 20% of the world’s oil supply. At its peak, we’re looking at roughly 8-10 million barrels a day – one of the biggest supply shocks in years. With a 10-day diplomatic break, things have calmed a bit, although there’s still a ton of skepticism out there – so volatility is still pretty extreme.
Goldman Sachs has gone and ticked up its 2026 Brent average to $85, and while their overall forecast for Brent is still $85, they think we’ll see it hit $110 come March or April. If we were to see a ceasefire, WTI might drop to $80-$90, but if things escalate again, we could see WTI break through $100, with Brent potentially reaching as high as $120.
Natural Gas is One Breakout Away from a Major Move
Looking at the 2-hour chart for Natural Gas – we’ve got a symmetrical triangle brewing, which just broke out at $2.863. The 38.2% Fib is a major target – that’s $2.974, and price just cleared the 23.6% level at $2.932. The blue EMA is curling up underneath price, which is a very bullish sign – and we’ve also got the red EMA just overhead, at $3.008 – this could be the next level of resistance to watch.
RSI is over 60, and the yellow signal line is making a bullish cross – which tells us momentum is building. And looking at the numbers – we’re pretty sure we’re heading for the 78.6% retracement at $3.091. And if we break that, $3.153 is looking like the next major target.
Buy at $2.974, stop at $2.864 – and keep an eye on $3.091
WTI Crude Takes Out Converging Triangle Apex – Bulls Fight Back, WTI Over $95
Looking at the 2-hour WTI chart, we’ve got a symmetrical triangle forming, with the upper boundary at $94.85. That’s now been taken out, and the red EMA is looking a lot more appealing to the bulls. Meanwhile, the rising blue support trendline from $76.56 is still holding strong.
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See all Natural Gas forecastsThere’s also been a bit of a RSI divergence going on – price made a new low at $86.75, but RSI actually printed a higher low. So, it would appear the selling pressure is wearing off. And now RSI is perched at 62, with plenty of room to run. 61.8% Fib from $107.41 to $81.53 is aiming for $97.33. But for now, $92.65 is still the go-to support level.
Buy at $95.50, stop at $92.65. Keep an eye on $97.33
Brent Crude Bounces Off Trendline as Three White Soldiers Tell Us the Plot is Reversing
The 2-hour Brent chart is showing us a textbook higher low at $93.35 – this is within the rising blue trendline from $81.24, so it’s still got a lot of integrity. Then we get three consecutive bulls – or three white soldiers, for those in the know – and that’s sent price back over $100. This also takes out the support level at $97.78 – and it’s now looking like resistance. The red EMA – previously the enemy – is now being approached from below.
RSI has gone from way down in oversold territory to a pretty healthy 60 – and there’s this sense that there’s momentum building. The $113.26 swing high is still the big one – that’s the major resistance we’re looking at. BUT – a spinning top at $105 is making us a bit nervous about this EMA.
Buy at $103.33 – set stop at $97.78 and keep an eye on $113.26
