Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will WTI $97 Support Hold or Sink to $93?

Oil and Gas in a Holding Pattern as Geopolitical Risk Keeps Prices Tethered to Volatility

Crude and natural gas prices are being kept in a precarious balance by geopolitical tensions – thats why prices are sitting above some pretty solid floor levels but not really budging much, nor are they likely to anytime soon. WTI is lingering around $97 which is roughly where you’d expect to see it – above the $93 mark, with the $98 to $103 range acting as a bit of a snag for those hoping to see a bigger price jump.

Meanwhile natural gas has been hovering around $3.03, stuck in this tiny little bubble between $2.96 and $3.17-$3.31 – its anyone’s guess what happens next to be honest.

Supply uncertainty still has everyone on edge and traders are getting increasingly spooked about the potential impact on demand from a tighter global energy market – all of which is keeping prices higher than they probably would be but still not giving anyone the confidence boost they’re really looking for

Natural Gas Holds $3.03 as Triangle Compression Signals Breakout

Natural gas prices are struggling to move, stuck in a bit of a stalemate just above $3.03. Looking at the big picture, there’s some classic signs of a major price move getting ready to happen and one of them is the lower highs and higher lows pattern that’s been developing – with price gravitating towards the support at $2.96 which is still holding its ground.

It’s not like there’s a big wall of resistance just above, either – around $3.17 to $3.31 is about as much as price has been able to manage so far. Sure, the momentum is there, but its not exactly a raging bull, and it could start to pick up a bit.

If gas can somehow find the strength to break above that $3.17 ceiling, we might start to see a push up towards $3.31 – but on the other hand, if it breaks down below that $2.96 support level then we might see a decline all the way down to $2.86. Either way, its starting to feel like this thing is about ready to blow its top in terms of volatility yet.

WTI Crude Oil Holds $97 as Bulls Eye $103 Resistance

WTI is trading at just under $97.24 right now – and it’s managing to cling on to key support after bouncing back up from that $86-$92 range where buyers had been absent. Price is starting to settle in around that 0.5 Fibonacci level, & while it’s still putting in higher lows – which is the general shape of a recovery trend. Now the market has flipped the $93 area on its head & made it into a sort of base that can support further rises.

The short-term moving average has been going up, and price is still sitting on top of long-term moving average, which is making us think that overall sentiment is still fairly bullish – even though we have that descening trendline above us. RSI at 50-55 is showing that the momentum’s pretty much balanced, and there’s certainly scope for the price to keep on rising.

If we get a break above $98.10, then we might see a run up to that $103 mark – but if we don’t, we might see a pullback to that $93 support zone.

Brent Crude Holds $104 as Uptrend Targets $106 Breakout

Brent is trading around $104.17, continuing its steady upward march, with prices forming a succession of higher lows against an upward-trending line. Despite the brief wobble in the $87-$94 zone it really hasnt changed the bigger picture – the setup is still a pretty positive one with bulls clinging on to the $100 level, which is fast becoming a key battleground (and a line in the sand). This level is now serving as a strong line of support.

The price action is still sitting pretty on top of both the Short Term and Long term moving averages – ie the 50-MA and 200-MA – which is telling us all we need to know. We also have the recent bit of consolidation just below $106.50 resistance – this could all lead to a bigger move breaking out to the upside. RSI meanwhile is hovering around 55 which is telling us there is still some real momentum in the tank but nothing so far that suggests we’re getting over-extended.

If we do finally manage to break through $106.50, you’d start to see the path open up towards $112.90, but on the flip side, if the price were to fall below $100 then it could trigger off a bit of a pullback towards the $94 support level. For now though, the trend is definitely looking upward as long as that upward structure holds.