Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Defends $67.81 While Brent Holds $73.06 — NatGas Eyes Higher?

Oil and Gas Fundamentals Reflect Supply Discipline and Seasonal Demand

Oil markets as of today, July 2, are managing OPEC+ production while non-OPEC supply continues to climb, especially from shale in the US. Refineries are running high as transportation fuel and petrochemical feedstock demand remain strong during the summer driving season. Inventories in the main storage basins are adjusting somewhat but supply and offtake trends still appear aligned. US crude stockpiles were largely unchanged last week with operations at the primary US hubs close to the lower end of working ranges. Product demand in the US continues to remain robust with strong underlying economic fundamentals.

US natural gas output continues to grow as associated gas volumes from US oil and direct natural gas drilling remain at fresh records. Liquefied natural gas export volumes stay high with a steady outflow of gas to international markets. US storage remains on top of its average with injections still underway while demand from the power sector will fluctuate with the weather and the industrial sector offers consistent underlying demand. Overall the fundamentals continue to suggest a strong supply picture capable of supporting both domestic demand and export volumes.

Natural Gas Futures Hold $3.196 – Green Channel Momentum on 1h

Natural Gas is priced at $3.196 on the 1hr NYMEX time frame. Mixed candles rest above the red MA at $3.18 within the green ascending channel. Bullish rejection wicks from the $3.099 swing low imply buyers remain in control during dips.

RSI is at ~52, indicating a neutral-to-bullish outlook. The red volume block at $3.12 will offer support. The next resistance level is likely to form between $3.229 and $3.260. The trend is bullish for prices above $3.099, as prices continue to trade within the green ascending channel. Higher highs and higher lows indicate buyers are still participating in the move.

Trade Idea: Buy $3.196, targeting $3.260, with a stop at $3.12.

WTI Crude Oil Dips to $67.81 – Blue Support Zone Defense on 1h

WTI is priced at $67.81 on the 1hr time frame. Mixed green/red candles protected the blue support band around $68.78 after rejection from the red MA around $71.15. Bullish rejection wicks from the blue support indicate that buyers are absorbing supply. Higher lows persist in the broader downtrend.

RSI is at 50, indicating neutral momentum. The green volume block between $68 and $70 represents the fair value area developing. The white descending trendline is the first resistance near $70.16.

While the broader trend is down, it remains neutral-to-bullish for now as long as WTI Crude Oil holds above the support band. The higher lows indicate buyers are still active when prices fall.

Trade Idea: Buy $67.81, targeting $70.16, with a stop at $66.40.

Brent Crude Oil Holds $73.06 – Blue Descending Channel Floor on 2h

Brent Crude is priced at $73.06 on the 2hr time frame. Mixed green/red candles probed the blue descending channel support around $72.48, following rejection from the red MA near $78.27. Bullish rejection wicks along the blue channel support in the broader downtrend suggest buyer support is emerging.

RSI is near 50 and signals neutral momentum. The green volume block between $73 and $74 shows the emerging fair value zone. Resistance in the $74.49 to $76.08 zone will be next. The trend remains neutral-to-bullish as long as Brent holds above the blue descending channel support. Higher lows indicate buyers are still active when prices dip.

Trade Idea: Buy $73.06, targeting $76.08, with a stop at $72.48.