Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Holds $4,000 Triple Bottom as Silver Tests $60 Ahead of NFP — Next Leg?

Precious Metals Fundamentals Supported by Central Bank Demand and Supply Limits

On July 2, gold and silver continue to find strength from the consistent replenishment of official reserves and the relatively flat trajectory of new mine output. Central banks around the world are still purchasing metals at a steady pace as a long-term hedge to a high level of sovereign debt and the changes in their respective monetary policies. This type of purchase has provided an underlying demand for gold and silver, that is largely unaffected by the current investment demand.

The supply side is constrained for both metals, with mine production growth remaining muted for both. Gold mine production has been sluggish, due to a combination of resource depletion and higher cost of extraction. Silver supply has been equally limited, despite the contribution from by-products mine production.

The recycling supply has been relatively stable, depending on price. On the demand side, silver has shown strong demand growth due to industrial usage in solar power panels, electronics and electric vehicles, which are closely linked with the energy transition. Both metals are also being bought in line with broader portfolio positioning trends.

The overall market dynamics of metals in the precious sector is driven by consistent central bank purchases, limited new mine supply, and strong silver industrial demand. This interacts with the macro environment, such as inflation expectations and fiscal spending trajectories, to provide an underlying basis for future supply-demand balance.

Gold Spot Rises to $4,063 – Triple Bottom Pattern Support on 4h

Gold is changing hands at $4,063. A triple bottom pattern was defending the support zone at $3,959 on a move from $3,959 to $4,063 after a sharp fall from $4,142. The bullish rejection wicks printed a higher low, demonstrating that buyers are stepping in to absorb supply. The RSI sits at the neutral point of 50.

The price range for accumulation is $3,959 to $4,000. The trend has switched from a large-scale downtrend to a neutral-to-bullish trend at $3,959 within the large-scale downtrend to $4,597 highs. The price has made a higher low, indicating the start of a bottoming process, which is supported by confluence zone of Fibonacci retracement levels.

Trade Idea: Buy $4,063, targeting $4,094, with a stop at $3,959.

Silver Spot Rises to $60.05 – Bearish Flag Breakout on 4h

Silver is changing hands at $60.05. The green candles indicating continuation of price gains have broken above the blue declining trendline at $58.83 on a move back to the $58.83 area after a fast decline from the high point of $69.85, as can be seen from the 4h chart. The higher high of the green candle has reversed the trend from distribution. The RSI has risen past 52, showing that the trend has shifted back to bullish.

There is a large volume area at a value of $58 to $60. The upside will be capped by the red 50 SMA, currently at $65.03. While the price trend is still in a large-scale downtrend, the trend has switched from a large-scale downtrend into the $58.83 level to a neutral-to-bullish trend. The price has made a low higher than the previous low, indicating the start of a bottoming process, supported by Fibonacci confluence area.

Trade Idea: Buy $60.05, with a target $63.32 and a stop $58.83.