Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Reclaims $100, Brent at $108 — More Upside Coming?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Start to Feel Good About the Middle East Ceasefire

Crude oil benchmarks sort of settled into a rhythm on Wednesday now that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has reached its 4th week & it’s really cut into the anxiety about Middle East conflict that had been building in energy markets since March. The deal has even let some tanker traffic trickle through the Strait of Hormuz which had all the world worried they’d be stuck with supply disruptions for months.

Some analysts say its not all roses yet, that it’s going to take a while for things to get all the way back to normal, but with no major incidents happening they can finally start thinking about the basic numbers in their calculations rather than just a bunch of worst-case scenarios. That’s a big part of why OPEC did make some production adjustments & US crude production has also been steady & helped stabilize the market – though its worth noting the world’s still got a ways to go to get back to normal before inventories are out of the danger zone.

Natural gas prices went pretty quiet meanwhile – because US and European storage levels are piling up & the weather up in the North has been pretty mild so there’s just been less demand overall. Plus the Middle East ceasefire has eased the pressure on shipping routes for Liquified Natural Gas coming out of places like Qatar.

Market players now are just trying to keep an eye out for the next data dump from the US, any OPEC announcements & if Iran is still talking a good game. While the calm in this part of the world feels pretty nice for now – lots of people are still keeping their fingers crossed that this whole ceasefire doesn’t fall apart before long – so things can get bumpy again in a hurry if things go back to being tense.

Natural Gas Futures Reclaims $2.78 – Fib Bounce in Up-Channel

NG futures is up at $2.783 on its 4 hour NYMEX – looks like a nice bounce off that $2.70 Fib support (0.618 level) inside that nice blue rising channel. We had some nice green candles showing up after some tests of that red moving average confluence near $2.77. Looks like the price has cleared some of those Fib extensions (0.382 at $2.771) and higher lows are being preserved.

RSI just broke above that 55 line confirming that momentum shift. Resistance is sitting at $2.814 (0.236 Fib) then up at $2.883 with that channel ceiling.

Trade Idea: If you like this one I’d look to buy at $2.783 with a target of $2.814 and a stop at $2.76.

WTI Crude Oil Reclaims $100 – Bull Channel Intact at Key Pivot

WTI crude is trading at $100.63 on its 4 hour chart – really bounced back up from that $99.73 low inside that steep blue ascending channel from April. Price still holding up above that blue lower trendline and red 50-period moving average near $100. We had some nice green candles showing up after some tests of $99.05 Fib support.

The higher low trend is still looking solid with clear rejection at $99.73. RSI climbs above that 50 line without getting too overbought. The overhead resistance for WTI crude is sitting at $101.31 high and then up at $104.00 with the channel ceiling. We had a look at the volume profile and its marking $100 as a strong support zone.

Trade Idea: If you want to buy that I’d look to get in at $100.60 with a target of $104.00 and my stop would be $99.20.

Brent Crude Oil Holds $108 Channel Support – Bullish Continuation?

Brent has just hit $108.04 on its 4 hour chart, with the price still respecting that lower blue channel line from down at the April lows. We had a pull back from that $109.02 high but price came right back into the green and found a pretty solid floor at that red moving average line near $106.50 with some good looking green candles sticking out and rejecting that lower price movement.

The higher low trend within the channel is still intact. We had a look at the Fib retracement from that recent swing and it looks like $106.96 is a key level now for us – a 38.2% level that’s getting defended. RSI is still above that 50 line with no bearish divergence showing up which is good news. The overhead resistance for Brent is clustering up at $109.50 to $112.00 with the channel top.

Trade Idea: If you want to buy that I’d look to get in at $108.00 with a target of $112.00 and my stop would be $106.50.