Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Slips to $98.75 as Brent Tests $105 — NatGas Breakout Gaining Steam?

US-Iran ceasefire stabilizes oil, natural gas markets

On Wednesday, May 22, 2026, oil markets remained relatively stable. The ceasefire between Iran and the US, which has been in effect for more than six weeks, remained intact. Tanker shipments through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed. Geopolitical risk has faded from the front burner of the market, allowing market players to return to the fundamentals of supply, demand, seasonality, and other key factors that have not been a priority this past quarter and a bit.

With the truce remaining solid for the past few weeks, prices for both WTI and Brent remained relatively steady. U.S. shale production was still robust, and OPEC+ output adjustments kept output levels at their previously adjusted level. Some production was returning to normal, although it was not yet at full normalization. Demand for oil in Asia also recovered a bit following the steep price hikes earlier this year. Demand for oil in most emerging markets remains relatively subdued, since consumers there are highly sensitive to fuel prices.

Meanwhile, the natural gas market also remained relatively stable. Good storage levels for natural gas remained a major driver of the market for natural gas in the U.S. and Europe this past spring, as weather remained mild in most areas. Oil market prices remained relatively subdued in the region as well, particularly as tanker traffic increased, and the market for natural gas was bolstered by longer-term LNG demand in Europe and Asia.

Investors kept a close watch on the oil market this week, as the U.S. releases its next inventory reports and as OPEC+ signals its next policy moves. While the truce has reduced immediate supply shock risks, many cautioned that any setback in the peace process between the United States and Iran could trigger a sudden spike in oil and natural gas prices.

Natural Gas Futures Holds Strong at $3.008, a Blue Channel Break

Natural Gas Futures is currently trading at $3.008 on the 4H NYMEX timeframe after green candles moved back above the red Moving Average near $2.95 as well as broke prior swing highs within the blue ascending channel of the 4H time frame price action chart. While bullish continuation green candles on the price action chart have respected the white descending trendline with higher lows remaining in place.

The RSI is now above 55 while bullish momentum can build with green candles while price is above the red Moving Average in terms of price action structure. Volume is backing the move with higher volumes in the advance. The next level of resistance is near the $3.066 to $3.15 Fibonacci extension while the structure is now decisively bullish on the 4H price action chart while price is remaining above the $2.95 levels after an upward trend line with higher lows have remained intact while price is trading within a clean up channel after the May lows.

Trade Idea: Buy at $3.008 and target $3.15 while a stop loss is placed at $2.98.

WTI Crude Oil Slips to $98.75, a Deeper Break of Blue Channel

WTI is currently trading at $98.75 on the 4H Timeframe after the price action printed red engulfing candles that dipped down below the blue ascending channel floor near $100.05 as well as the red 50 periods Moving average. The bears were able to push lower from the $102.77 high with lower lows and strong distribution wicks while the 50 period Moving average was sloping downwards on the 4H timeframe price action chart.

Price targets the $97.20 to $96.05 Fibonacci Extension levels while the RSI has now moved below 45 indicating that bearish momentum could be building. The Volume Profile marks $100 to $102 as failed fair value with the higher volume wicks indicating that the sellers have the advantage. A white descending trendline has come to act as a potential ceiling of price action near $99.43 while the price action continues to be decisively bearish below $100 in terms of structural support. Additionally, price action continues to drift within an extended down channel which has come from the May highs. Resistance from the higher timeframes is now seen as firm at $100.52 levels from the pivot.

Trade Idea: Enter at $98.75 and target $97.20 while a stop loss is placed at $99.43.

Brent Crude Oil Moves Down to $105.79, a Channel Floor Retest

Brent Oil is now trading at $105.79 on the 4H Timeframe after red candles have tested lower blue ascending channel line while a break below red Moving Average is being watched near $106.30. The bearish red candles on the 4H timeframe price action chart have formed a few wicks above $103.10 which is the support level while there is potential for more lower highs to print with a neutral to bearish structure in place.

The RSI is now close to 48 in terms of momentum while the RSI is indicating that the bears still have some momentum. The Volume Profile is highlighting $108 to $109 levels as potential supply levels. Additional selling at $103.88 to $103.10 may come from a confluence. The price has a neutral to bearish structure below $106.30 levels on the 4H price action chart in terms of structure while defending the channel floor of April.

Trade Idea: Enter short position at $105.79 and target $103.88 while a stop loss is placed at $106.30.