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Barry Norman
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Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis December 17, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas continued to decline as investors lost shed the commodity, trading at 3.295. Natural gas may advance next week as forecasts show colder weather that would boost heating fuel consumption, a Bloomberg survey showed.

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Four of nine analysts, or 44 percent, said that futures will rise on the New York Mercantile Exchange through Dec. 21. Three, or 33 percent, said gas will drop and two predicted prices will stay the same. Last week, 55 percent of participants said gas would fall this week.

WSI Corp. in Andover, Massachusetts, predicted normal or below-normal temperatures in the eastern half of the U.S. from Dec. 23 through Dec. 27. The low in New York on Dec. 27 may be 27 degrees Fahrenheit 2 lower than usual, according to Inc. Gas slipped to $3.293 in intraday trading yesterday, the lowest level since Sept. 28. A government report yesterday showed that U.S. stockpiles climbed unexpectedly amid mild weather, rising 2 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 7 to 3.806 trillion. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg predicted a withdrawal of 3 billion cubic feet. The five-year average decline for the period was 113 billion.

The gas survey has correctly forecast the direction of prices 49 percent of the time since its June 2004 introduction. Bloomberg’s survey of natural-gas analysts and traders asks for an assessment of whether Nymex natural-gas futures will probably rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 14

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.90

 

 

 

50.50 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.6

 

45.0 

 

44.5 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

47.2 

 

46.8 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

46.6 

 

46.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.5% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-1.40%

 

0.00% 

 

0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.9% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 17 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-0.5 

-5.2 

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

3.3B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 17 10:10 Norway 

Dec 17 18:00 US 

Dec 18 01:30 Japan 

Dec 18 09:30 Spain 

Dec 18 10:10 Greece 

Dec 18 18:00 US 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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