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Barry Norman
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Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis December 21, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas is trading at 3.385 adding a few pips today. Gas seems to be dancing to a different waltz than the rest of the markets over the past few days. Traders seem to once again be pulling strings like puppeteers, bumping up gas and taking profit and then pulling gas down to take profit. With thinning trade and trader’s attention diverted energy speculators are repeating the dance they did when they ran natural gas up just a month ago to a recent high at 3.9999. Weather patterns seem to be holding at seasonal temperatures and residential demand seems stable but low as traders closely await todays inventory release which is expected to show a decline in inventory.

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FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 20

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

 

 

-1.8% 

   

 

 

HKD

 

 

Hong Kong CPI (YoY) 

3.70%

 

3.90% 

 

3.80% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.7% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.9%

 

1.5% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.1% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

 

357K 

 

344K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

3.1%

 

2.8% 

 

2.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3225K

 

3199K 

 

3213K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

 

 

4.87M 

 

4.79M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

 

 

-3.0 

 

-10.7 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-14.0B

-20.8B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-0.2%

1.8%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.2%

0.5%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.3%

-0.2%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.7

74.5

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

Dec 26 01:30 Japan 

Dec 27 10:10 Italy  

Dec 28 10:10 Italy 

 

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