Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis – November 13, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  gained 30 points ahead of tomorrow’s delayed weekly inventory report. NG is trading at 2.293 as traders bought up the cheap commodity. Moderate weather has kept demand for the heating fuel subdued, allowing storage inventories to grow above average levels. Weather-driven demand is usually strong enough at this time of year that stockpiles shrink each week as producers draw natural gas out of storage. But this year, analysts expect that producers are still injecting more fuel into storage than consumers are withdrawing.

Forecasts released Wednesday showed warmer weather in the next two weeks than previously expected, with East Coast cities seeing temperatures above 60 degrees, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC.

Following the bullish inventory news, natural gas prices rallied to their highest settlement in two weeks. Despite the boost, the commodity is still averaging less than half of what it did some five to six years back. With production remaining plentiful and expected to outpace demand for most of 2015, the commodity is likely to stay depressed for a while.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook

November 10-16th: A mild weather system over the southeast will track up along the East Coast with areas of heavy showers today. High pressure will follow in its wake as it expands out of the central US ahead of a Pacific weather system pushing through the West. Temperatures over the eastern US will warm 10-15°F above normal by Wednesday, while 10-20°F below normal over the interior West where valley rains and mountain snows will continue. This system will bring lows of teens and 20s over the interior West and Plains over the coming days, with 30s into the northern TX. This system will then track into the East Friday through this weekend, increasing national nat gas demand before easing early next week as another Pacific system drops into the West, pushing milder ridging back across the East. Overall nat gas demand this week will be MODERATE, locally LOW.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)